General Politics
Presidential Race is Up for Grabs in PA, But Will it Matter? By: Jim Lee, President of Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc.
Presidential Race is Up for Grabs in PA, But Will it Matter? With Santorum dropping out of the Presidential Race before the 4/24 PA Primary came to town it’s all but certain that Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee for President. In our Spring SP&R Omnibus Poll, Pennsylvanians already put Romney within striking distance [...]
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( 2 so far )High black Turnout isn’t Likely to Save Obama, but PA’s Fastest Growing Counties Can
President Obama’s prospects for reelection largely hinge on the health of the economy in 2012. Our last poll in the summer showed that only 41% approved of the president’s job performance (down from 45%), while a growing 48% plurality disapproved. When asked about reelecting him, only 44% said the President deserved to be reelected, while [...]
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Weak Economy Is Hurting Obama in PA
The economy is moving at a snail’s pace and this sobering fact alone could be enough to put PA back in “battleground” status in time for the 2012 Presidential race. Consider the drubbing of bad news that surfaced just in the last week of May. The stock market dropped 297 points in a single day, [...]
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Experts: American political discourse more divisive than ever; By Mike Wereschagin, Pittsburgh Tribune Review, Jan. 11, 2011
Max Schaeffer doesn’t talk about politics. It’s not worth the aggravation. “It’s like politics has become the third rail. I don’t want to talk politics with anyone, because it’s going to devolve into an argument,” said Schaeffer, 38, of Philadelphia. That anger goes deeper than discourse, he said. It’s unclear whether it played a role [...]
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Patriot News Title Recapping Pitt Trib Poll Was Plain Wrong
On January 4, the Pittsburgh Tribune Review released a statewide poll they commissioned our firm to conduct testing the attitudes and opinions of Pennsylvania voters on various issues facing the state. One such question dealt with the expected multi-million dollar budget deficit for Pennsylvania (estimated to be $4 to $5 billion), and voters were asked to choose what they [...]
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )PA Gov Race: Onorato Is Losing, but Mainly Because of Rendell
Our latest poll in the governor’s race earlier this summer shows Attorney General Tom Corbett with a 10-point, 43% to 33% lead over Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato; 24% of voters were undecided at the time the survey was taken (June 3-7). For all intents and purposes, Corbett’s lead is wide and deep and he [...]
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )U.S. Senate Race (Sestak v. Toomey): A Referendum on Obama’s First Two Years in Office?
Congressman Joe Sestak’s successful insurgent campaign over Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter in the May 18th Democratic Primary sets up a black-and-white, crystal clear choice for voters in the fall. Basically, a vote for Sestak is a vote for a strong advocate for the president and his policies. A vote for Pat Toomey is largely a repudiation [...]
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( 2 so far )2010 Gov Race Shaping Up To Be A Lot Like 1978
The Republican nominee for governor is a law-and-order prosecutor from Western Pennsylvania who is fighting state scandals in Harrisburg. The main Democrats seeking the gubernatorial nomination are running to the right of the incumbent governor on tax and spending issues, making sure voters know fiscal discipline is the new “en vogue”. And the governor’s favored [...]
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( 2 so far )Theme of the 2010 Elections: A Return to “Checks and Balance”
On November 3rd voters went to the polls to fill vacancies on the state Supreme Court, Superior Court and Commonwealth Court. The outcome was that Republicans won 6 of 7 contests, including the elevation of Superior Court Judge Joan Orie Melvin to the state’s highest court. The fact that Republicans prevailed is significant because Pennsylvania [...]
Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )Theme of the 2010 Elections: Return to “Checks and Balance”
On November 3rd voters went to the polls to fill vacancies on the state Supreme Court, Superior Court and Commonwealth Court. The outcome was that Republicans won 6 of 7 contests, including the elevation of Superior Court Judge Joan Orie Melvin (also a ChamberPAC-endorsed candidate) to the state’s highest court. The fact that Republicans prevailed is significant because Pennsylvania now boasts 1.2 million more registered Democrats than Republicans, Republicans were outspent by Democrats in these contests and the state has become more Democratic in recent years as evidenced by Barack Obama’s 10-point margin last year over John McCain. Democrats are the majority party now, and control both the governor’s office and the State House of Representatives. Republicans control only the state senate.
This same dynamic of voting against the “party in power” also played out in elections in New Jersey and Virginia this year. Elections for governor were on the ballot in both states and voters again chose Republicans. In New Jersey, normally a reliably “blue” state, voters ousted Democratic Governor Jon Corzine by electing GOP challenger and former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie on a message of bringing change to New Jersey. His victory was hailed as a return to a system of checks and balances since Democrats have total control of state government in Trenton including the State Senate and State Assembly. In Virginia, voters chose Republican Bob McDonnell over Democrat Craig Deeds despite the fact that the state recently elected a Democratic governor and United States senator. Republicans also picked up seats in the Democratic-controlled Virginia State Assembly. President Obama carried both New Jersey and Virginia in 2008.
The impact of these elections has clear consequences for the upcoming 2010 elections in Pennsylvania. In our state over the last few decades the political pendulum has swung back and forth between Republicans and Democrats at all levels. For instance, from eight years of Democrat governors to eight years of Republican ones; from a 12-to-7 GOP-controlled congressional delegation after the 2002 election, to a 12-to-7 Democratic-controlled congressional delegation after the 2008 elections. This back-and-forth between the parties holds true even in the state legislature in Harrisburg where Democrats captured control of the State House by 28 votes in 2006 after a close vote recount in a Chester County seat. Similarly, Republicans won control of the State House back in 1978 by 21 voters after winning a vote recount in a Somerset County seat.
All this seems to indicate that 2010 will again be the Republicans’ turn. The theme of many GOP candidates will be the message of returning to a system of “checks and balances”. Our polling this year confirms the “checks and balances” message is resonating, where by an astonishing 60 to 30 percent margin voters in Pennsylvania said they would rather vote for a candidate for state representative who “can be a check and balance to Governor Rendell and the Democratic agenda in Harrisburg”, rather than a candidate who “will help Governor Rendell and the Democrats pass their agenda in Harrisburg”. Support for the “checks and balances” argument includes 80% of Republicans and even 44% of Democrats. Our polling in several competitive congressional districts shows a similar pattern, where voters prefer a candidate for congress who will not be a rubber stamp for President Obama’s policies. Even Democratic U.S. Senator Arlen Specter is feeling the heat, because in our recent poll only 31% of the state’s voters said he deserved to be reelected in 2010, while 59% said it was time to give a new person a chance. This poll sent such shock waves across the country that it became the topic of discussion by conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh on his radio program the day after it broke.
But Republicans would be foolish to celebrate early. If the economy makes a strong comeback by the middle of next year, Democrat candidates at both the federal and state level will be able to say things improved under their watch, and that their policies and programs were the correct medicine to fix an ailing economy that most voters readily admit was largely inherited. If however, the perception among Americans is that things are not getting much better, and unemployment continues to hover near the 10 percent mark, Republican candidates could use the “checks and balances” theme as a successful strategy to remind the public that one-party domination is not the best way out of the economic mess we’ve gotten ourselves into. If this happens, using history as a guide the smart bet would be to put your money on the GOP.
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