Mitt Romney Can Win Pennsylvania Because He Is Winning the “Jobs” Argument

Posted on October 19, 2012. Filed under: General Surveys, In The News |

Our latest Pennsylvania poll conducted 10/11-10/13 and released by the Washington Examiner October 18th shows Mitt Romney has taken the lead over President Obama by a 49-45 margin.  This automated poll, conducted with 1,376 likely voters, was conducted on behalf of the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania, and released publicly by the Pa GOP shortly thereafter.  This poll validates our last three publicly released polls showing the Keystone State as a tossup – including a pair of polls taken before the first televised presidential debate in Denver both showing the Keystone State was already in play even when other firms continued to suggest Obama would win by huge margins.  

The fact of the matter is that Mitt Romney is winning Pennsylvania because he is winning the “jobs” argument.   Every statewide poll we have done the past three years shows Pennsylvanians want the economy fixed.  According to our latest polls, the economy continues to be cited as the most important problem facing the Commonwealth– mentioned by nearly fifty percent and far ahead of any other issue.  And the PA Labor Department released its revised unemployment report showing the state’s unemployment rate (8.2%) now officially higher than the nation’s 7.8%.   So Pennsylvanians are still suffering from a bleak economy, more so perhaps than neighboring states like Ohio that can attribute their recent job gains to the auto industry.  This explains why some need to warm up to the argument that Pa’s electoral votes could be up for grabs.

Among Keystone State voters in our poll who say the economy and job creation is the most important issue that will influence their vote, voters prefer Romney over Obama by a 54% to 40% margin.  This is clear evidence Romney is winning the jobs argument.  Voters in Western Pa, who tend to be blue collar, working class Democrats, care about jobs and resent the President’s war on coal.   In the Pittsburgh market, Romney is on track to run up huge margins.  In the vote-rich Southeast collar counties around Philadelphia, Romney is neck-and-neck with Obama because these more affluent, better educated suburban voters identify with Mitt Romney and a lot of what he stands for. They know he’s not an extremist, know he cares about kids and women, saved the Olympics and wants deficits under control.  Everyone knows Republicans can’t win Pa without doing well in the Southeast, and Romney is poised to make history there.  And there is mounting evidence voters know that the natural gas boom in Pennsylvania is under a direct threat from a second Obama term – while Romney has made it clear he will do everything in his power to cultivate this growing gas industry that has already kept thousands of Pennsylvania families from joining the ranks of the unemployed. 

This is why our statewide polling was the first to show Romney with an improved image in the Commonwealth after the first debate – 48% now view him favorably, a huge reversal from pre-debate polling.  And this is a clear indication even in a “blue” state like Pennsylvania voters are smart enough to know that having a leader in the White House who understands job creation is more important than having the letter “R” or “D” posted outside the Oval office door.  

So the fact of the matter is that pundits who dismiss Pennsylvania as a tossup are using the wrong set of assumptions. This is why our publicly-released polling continues to show that Pennsylvania’s electoral votes could go to Romney – even when many other polling firms continue to show huge 2008-size leads for Obama that are simply not believable in the current polarized climate.  Other recent polling firms showing Obama with huge leads in Pa have systematically under sampled Republicans by an average of 5 to 8 points. This is a huge miscalculation in sampling error especially in a year where GOP enthusiasm is especially high and Republican voters are repeatedly telling pollsters they will vote for Romney by margins of 95-5.  Our ratio of Republicans to Democrats surveyed in all our Pa polls has been 48D-42R, a good road map for turnout and one that nationally renowned experts like Michal Barone have argued makes sense.  And if the recent news is to believed showing Pa Democrats have failed to hit their goals for absentee ballot requests and new registrations, this could be the first tactical evidence that Mitt Romney is ready to join former President George Bush “41” as the most recent GOP presidential candidate to win the Keystone State.

 

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218 Responses to “Mitt Romney Can Win Pennsylvania Because He Is Winning the “Jobs” Argument”

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I am a PA resident who is hopefull, especially after seeing more and more Romney/Ryan signs.

I was born in Philadelphia and raised in South Jersey. I have no hope for a republican winning either of those states. My grandfather worked for the democratic party and we think the mob to “convince” people to vote for democrats only. Its something that still goes on, whether we like to admit it or not. The Union leaders tell the Union members who to vote for now. And they ALWAYS vote blue.

Its the biggest voter fraud scam for the last 30 years. The reason its a not something thats talked about is because both sides cheat. If you aren’t cheating you aren’t trying.

NJ is just as bad. New York as well. Even though all of the states mentioned are in serious economical trouble and a few of the states pretty much Bankrupt, people will never vote republican.

Hell liberals banned 32 oz sodas in New York and they’re still voting for democrats. Along with 10$’s for a pack of smokes.

The North East is in trouble, and they don’t even realize it.

-Former Employee of The Department of Transportation for NJ, PA, and DE. (Had to leave due to lack of work).
-Current Employee of The Department of Transportation for FL.

Vote red, they at least won’t fuck you.

“The Union leaders tell the Union members who to vote for now. And they ALWAYS vote blue.”

Here in Massachusetts, in 2010 when Scott Brown was running against Martha Coakley, the Union leadership was all for Coakley. And you saw a lot of Union guys out there with Coakley signs. However, if you went and talked to them, you found out that they were there because they were getting PAID to be there, and were basically being told that if they weren’t out there, they would find themselves working a lot less. But they would also tell you they were planning on voting for Brown.

You’ll see more signs if you live in the Republican dominated areas…

Funny how people think their local perception is the reality on the State level… let alone nationally.

Live in Pennsylvania in a suburb of Philadelphia. 4 years ago the sentiment of neighbors and signs / bumper stickers were all for Obama….Now I have not seen one Obama sign…Doesn’t mean Romney will win, but does show the level of enthusiasm people have over what has been accomplished in the last 4 years.

Guys really, you sound like a bunch of idiots squabeling in defense of your bases. Besides the obvious war on Coal, Catholic Church, NRA and business. Yes, like it or not, if you make it less inviting for business. Without businesses you can’t have a union. The war on Coal speaks for itself, not counting the Marrage issue, abortion issue in its war on the Catholic Church. 26% of PA voters are Catholic, out of all the states in the USA PA has the highest NRA membership, The Marrage issue is just starting to perculate, talk about destroying the motivation for the minority vote. This vote is not about the democratic or republican party. This about the direction of the country. Whether the Corrupt United Nations overthrows every soverign nation or we maintain are individual sovriegnty. Whatever we decide, be respectful, remember our constitution, especially the 2nd amendment, this is about our country not about being a political hack.

No he does not

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/voter_registration_statistics/12725

The voter registrations in PA are 36.95 % R, 50.06% D, 12.98% I/Other.

Your polling had 42% R, 48% D, 10 % I.

In this polarized environment (as acknowledged by you), that’s called a biased sample.

Could PA be close? Maybe. Could Mitt Romney be ahead in PA? Based on your survey and factoring out the sample bias, it seems unlikely.

Nothing you cited matters….at all. The only thing that matters is how many of those registered voters show up to vote. In Philly the turnout will be much less pronounced than 2008. In addition, the more sensible and practical folks in the Philly burbs are not going to support Obama as much as in 2008. Combine that with Obama’s hate of coal miners and you know the Western section of the State will see next to zero voted for Obama.

Sorry, but there is a chance that Romney wins PA. It’s not because people here love Romney, it’s because Obama is a liar and a terrible President.

PA voters very well may have voted for Moderate Mitt-but will not vote for the Romney that has had to move far right to appease the Tea Party crowd. Ryan drags Romney down in PA the same way that Palin dragged Mccain down in PA. Maybe not in your neck of the woods-but accross the state and heavily in Pittsburgh and Philly.

If you knew anything about polling, then you would understand that at this point in the race the number of people registered in each party does not matter at this point. ALL polling agencies begin to switch from registered voters to likely voters at this time of year. They use historical data to create the models and percentages of the people they interview. Most polling places are using the data from the 2008 presidential race for their model which shows a D+8 result due to the historic turnout of democrats during that race. In this poll it was D+6. While you might say Aha, let me add this. A small group of national polls have decided that the turnout this time will not reach those levels and instead of using the 2008 presidential race results model they are using a combination of the 2004 and 2008 results and others are using the 2008 and 2010 (non-presidential race results) to try and create a more accurate model. This would result in something less than a D+8 result. This poll is in line with that process. Finally the sample is D+6 and yet the results still show Romney in the lead. . Not good for the President.

“ALL polling agencies begin to switch from registered voters to likely voters at this time of year. ”

Immaterial. This was not a LV poll. Moot argument.

“Most polling places are using the data from the 2008 presidential race for their model which shows a D+8 result due to the historic turnout of democrats during that race. In this poll it was D+6. While you might say Aha”

Yeah I do say Aha, but not for your reasons.

I say Aha because, you’re taking NATIONAL registration numbers and projecting them on a LOCAL population which clearly has a more D-leaning registration pattern.

“they are using a combination of the 2004 and 2008 results and others are using the 2008 and 2010″

Again, those are national figures. Show me the turnout in PA, for 2004 and 2008.

The Republican sample size seems large – I’m not so sure about the Democratic though. Dems are highly more likely to not vote at all. Turnout will be key, and “likely voters” keep Mitt in the ballgame.

| “Immaterial. This was not a LV poll. Moot argument.”

That’s weird.

“This automated poll, conducted with 1,376 likely voters, was conducted on behalf of the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania, and released publicly by the Pa GOP shortly thereafter.

I stand corrected on the LV model. At least, when I’m wrong, I’ll admit it. If the Republicans had done the same about the effect of the Bush policies on the economy, they would have stood a chance this election.

But no, they have to repackage the same plan except on steroids. And raid the retirement plans along the way.

You seem to assum, BGSC, that all Dems (especially those who are unemployed) are going to automatically vote for the president that has caused the worst jobs performance since the Great Depression (in terms of months of high unemployment and labor participation).

Well, they won’t. I know this for a fact–I don’t live in Pennsylvania but I lost my job last October and Obama is the LAST person I’d vote for.

Besides, enthusiasm is way up for those voting against Obama and way down for those trying to determine if Obama even deserves their vote.

Bottom line: It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Pennsylvania go for Romney, not only because the economy is a huge issue (jobs), but especially in light of Bengazigate–which admittedly isn’t a jobs issue–but if you have a president that lies to the American people, why on earth would you ever vote for him?

“why on earth would you ever vote for him?”

Ohh COME ON.

Mitt Romney’s statements on his tax plan are the WORST lies that have been stated in this election cycle.
His statements:
1.No tax cut that grows the deficit
2.The share of taxes paid by the rich will remain the same
3.Growth will broaden the tax base and meet the shortfall from cutting tax rates

Are NOT simultaneously possible (as in, ALL 3 metrics can NOT mathematically be achieved at he same point of time).

When deficit-neutrality is achieved (in the hypothetical, with the rosy assumptions of growth), the share of taxes paid by the rich HAS come down.

Time-travel based assertions on his tax plan…that’s the worst kind of lie. It’s deception as has never been tried before.

What your missing BGSC is that it is not a lie until it has been realized after the fact. For example, in 2008 when Obama said he would reduce the deficit by half by the end of his first term was NOT a lie in 2008. When he voted for all kinds of deficit spending programs and doubled the deficit during his first term, it has now become a lie in 2012. Mitt Romney’s statements of “No tax that grows the deficit” etc. is only a plan right now. If during his presidency he sponsors and signs lax cut legislation that adds to the deficit, it will then become a lie, but not now. The only liar in the race right now is the one who has a record of broken promises.

“he voted for all kinds of deficit spending programs and doubled the deficit during his first term, it has now become a lie in 2012.”

http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/us_deficit

Yes, there is a liar in the picture: YOU.

The budget for 2009 had already been passed, when Obama got into office. He didn’t get to do massive course-change. No President gets to do massive course-change in terms of the budget, in the first year. That’s why the 2009 deficit is attributed to Bush.

Comparing 2009 to 2013, Obama has reduced the deficit by 35%. An underachievement, but not a LIE.

Let’s now come to YOUR LIE.

Your comparing the 2008 number (459 Billion$) to the 2012 number (1089 Billion $).

Thus, in your world, Obama got into office, and MAGICALLY, he was supposed to get the economy out of the recession the Bush policies had dumped the economy in, FOR the year 2009?

That’s the only way your accounting ties up: by doing DUBIOUS accounting.

It’s the same reason Romney-Ryan’s budget does NOT sell: he doesn’t openly explain the numbers, and if all his statements were taken at face value (EVEN the rosy assumption of growth), the share of taxes paid by the rich DOES go down…at the same point of time the tax plan becomes “deficit-neutral”.

Actually… it wasn’t me that said it, it was Obama. He said it when he knew he would inherit the Bush economy in 2009 and it wasn’t the first year we were holding him to the promise, it was his first term. So he gave himself until 2012 to cut the deficit in half. The deficit he was referring to when he said it was the last Bush deficit you cited (459B). So had the 2012 budget deficit been reduced to 230B, he would have made good on that promise in my estimation regardless of what his results were in 2009, 2010, and 2011. In fact, Obama’s budget submittals as you recall were so egregious, that no member of congress in either party would vote for them. Not exactly the type proposal a President looking to make good on that promise would make. With the massive squandering of taxpayer dollars that the Democrats perpetrated in 2009/2010 before the Republicans put a stop to it, it is clear that Obama was never really planning to make good on that promise. Therefore, we can validly conclude at this point, that his assertion was likely intended to be a lie even in 2008, and officially became one in 2012. It is only a small sample of the many broken promises coming from this administration. While it’s possible that Romney’s promises may turn out to be broken as well, you can’t conclude that they are now before we see if he will execute on them. I believe he will. We know what Obama’s record to deliver on promises is.

Romney/Ryan 2012

BGSC – Talk about LYING! OBAMA passed the 2009 budget on March 11, 2009. The Democrats in Congress didn’t want to give Bush a chance to veto it before the 2008 elections. All the over-spending belongs to Obama and the Democrats.

Where do you get those numbers? I find it very suspect as a LOT more Americans (even in MA where I’m from) register as Independents now than ever before and they average about 30-35% of those who vote…and Romney is consistently being shown to have much stronger support among them than the illegal Kenyan Muslim Marxist racist Chicago slum organizer.

BGSC: when Joe Gibbs took over the Redskins and when Bill Walsh took over the 49ers, each had a “new offense” in mind that some didn’t think would work and many did not understand. They did work. It would be bad enuff that after four yrs of Obama the economy is getting steadily worse as far as growth is concerned, but he’s still: 1) blaiming Bush; 2) using the crisis to push for hiring more unionized state pub employees; 3) committed to Obamacare w/ creates enormous uncertainty restricting businesses; 4) wants to waste money on Green Energy; 5) wants to waste money on high-speed trains to nowhere; 6) wants to increase the public sector at the expense of the public sector; and 7) has as his goal eliminating the private sector entirely and having all those (legal or not) in the country receiving a government check of some kind and food stamps as needed. He seems to have deep-seated distrust of the free market, but the free market is as basic as Newton’s Laws. Whether he really wants to destroy the country or not, there is no other possible result from his policies. Moreover, he sees government as existing to “help your friends, hurt your enemies” and he has followed that dictum so far. He is in fact a corrupt big city mayor in the Oval Office. America cannot tolerate his empty promises, stated goals, and threats to bad guys anymore. Romney is at least honest, decent and a believer in the free market.

” They did work”

That’s the LAMEST excuse for a plan that’s basically Reagan-Bush on steroids.

Neither of them worked as promised. The GDP metrics after the Reagan/Bush tax cuts are substantially due to expansion in BIG GOVERNMENT SPENDING, for which Ryan signed on the dotted line…while Bush was President.

There’s no evidence that the kind of rosy GDP growth projected (BUT not PROMISED, the sociopath weasels) is realistically feasible.

But IT IS possible to mathematically show that all 3 statements made are SIMULTANEOUSLY not feasible.
It’s possible in theory, that the rosy growth being projected materializes (it never did, without Big Government Spending increases): EVEN if that happens, measuring AFTER the event happens, the SHARE of taxes paid by the rich will have come down. That’s the logical and expected outcome of “broad-basing”.

And you know what happens when the jobs growth based “broad-basing” doesn’t happen: look at what Reagan did. Employment didn’t grow as projected/needed to balance the budget, so raise taxes…in a regressive manner: sales tax.

I am especially concerned about time-travel based accounting. Measure “Share of taxes” BEFORE the projected GDP growth happens, and measure deficit-neutrality AFTER the projected GDP growth happens.

This is what a lying car salesman does. It’s totally appropriate that the image of Ryan-Romney IS that of a lying car salesman: that’s how they are behaving.

Just for the record, I’ll state it, one more time.

When I say “BIG GOVERNMENT SPENDING” under Reagan/Bush, THIS is what I mean.

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/fed_spending_2012USbn

Compute the spending growth under Bush, Reagan, Obama…and for good measure, Clinton.

Spending grew annualized, at 6,24% a year under Obama. 6.58% a year under Bush (6.8% during the 1st six years of Bush). 7.57% under Reagan. 3.28% a year under Clinton.

Another key metric: share of “defense” spending in the Federal Budget: 20% in 1980, 31% in 1988, 25% in 1992, 20% in 2000, 24.5% in 2008, 23.7% in 2012.

If you want to know what’s crippling GDP growth, look no further than the money wasted in the name of “defense”, distorting the free market more than ANY other action.

Welfare spending has gone up 30% under Obama. This means he could have spent an additional 200 billion on defense and saved 200 billion had he not over regulated the economy.

“This means he could have spent an additional 200 billion on defense and saved 200 billion”

Defense spending is ALREADY too high. Spending is 23.97 cents on the Federal $, on defense. Literally, if the Federal budget were balanced, 23.97% of it goes on Defense.

The USA did quite well when it spent 20 cents on the Federal $ on defense, under President Clinton. That’s the closest the USA has gotten in decades, to healthy budgets.

St Reagan grew defense spending from 20% to 31% of the Federal Budget. It wasn’t a miracle that he tripled the debt, the debt didn’t fall out of the sky.

As far as the debt growth under President Obama is concerned:
1.SPENDING has grown slower than it did under St Reagan: St Reagan grew spending at 7.57% a year. Bush at 6.58% a year, 6.8% a year in the 2000-2006 period. Clinton grew spending at 3.28% a year. There’s GOOD REASON Clinton is held in high regard, on economic issues.

2.Even though the spending growth under Obama has been slower than some of his Republican predecessors (and therefore, likely to be slower if Obama is re-elected: LOOK at what Ryan did when a Republican President was in office: SPEND, SPEND, SPEND. 6.58% a year, 6.8% till Pelosi became speaker), I will readily acknowledge that 6.24% a year is not sustainable. Spending growth needs to be dragged down to something in the range of what Clinton had. That DOES mean substantial cuts in defense spending.

3. I know it’s very tempting to say “Defense is the main job of government and therefore defense spending is the last thing to cut”. I disagree. Government does have a constitutional role in “General Welfare”. Whether SS/Medicare are GOOD, is an entirely separate discussion. It is absurd to discuss SS/Medicare VERSUS defense, and thereby pass on costs of YOUR spending expansions on those retiring in the next couple of decades, and paying into SS/Medicare now.

You don’t base a poll on party registration but what you think turnout will be. +6 is probably right for PA maybe even a bit high, certainly not biased. Biased is some of these other polls like fox on Ohio +8 democrat when there is 0 chance of that being the actual turnout.

Don’t u realize that there is a enthusiastic gap between registered republicans and democrats. Many of democrats register by name but don’t vote because of the democratic voter registration driving effort.

You may be right, and not knowing PA demographics I will accept your stats on party registration. The model used here is meant to be a projection of which voters are going to actually turn out. Pretty much every poll has some such model. If voter turnout always matched party affiliation in every state it would be much simpler to project winners and losers but that is not the reality of how it works. The assumption is that Republicans are more motivated voters in this election cycle. In 2008 the results showed Democrats plus 8, in 2010 it was Republicans plus 6, so the assumption is this year will be some where in between those numbers. We wont know until the votes are counted which model is correct for this year.

“You may be right, and not knowing PA demographics I will accept your stats on party registration.”

Oh, you don’t need to take my numbers at face value. Unlike Romney-Ryan, I post the source of my numbers, UNBLEMISHED, UNBIASED. You have every right to slice and dice the numbers from the core, underlying numbers. If Romney-Ryan had done that, we could have had a genuine debate this cycle.

As of now, it is quite obvious that the reason Romney-Ryan didn’t produce their numbers in detail, is the likelihood that doing so would expose the following 3:
1. The assumption of growth used in his projections is rosy: if they don’t pan out, all you’ll see is a shrug and an assertion that “deficits don’t matter”. Whereas, in reality, it would be a deficit/inflation tax, which would fall most on those with least income

2.IF the rosy assumptions of growth do pan out, the rich WILL pay a smaller share of federal taxes

3.NONE of these factor into account the budgetary savings ARE costs passed on to the people, and that isn’t accounted for in the assumptions of growth. Growth is supposed to happen, while people simultaneously find extra cash to stash away for the “changed” retirement plan, with Vouchercare. Taking that cost into account, wealth disparity between the poor/middle class and the rich will only go up. And understating that or not talking about that doesn’t wish away that fact.

Someone needs to learn a little history. All three metrics did occur in the 80′s when Reagan cut taxes. That is fact.

BGSC-

Ok so you are going to win because there are 450,000 dead people voting………….,oh thats right, they removed them, 90% of which were in fact registed Democrats. I bet you are super excited a libtard judge threw down the voter ID law to ensure ZERO has a chance in Pennsylvania. Nothing like the ability to vote over and over and over again to win an election egh?

REALITY buddy, get a grip on reality. Yes all the polls, and I do mean all the previous polls show Obama winning (That being said by oversampling Libtards D+8 to D+12 in nearly every poll), and now that one comes out showing Romney winning, you jump up and down acting as if the Registered voter advantage is going to pull ZERO out this time around? Wow, you must think very low of Pennsylvanian’s intelligence.

Don’t forget this very poll with a D+8 oversampling show ZERO being a ZERO, and you are saying it ain’t so? WOW….., too much of that ZERO cool aid.

I don’t care if they are Democrat, Republican or Independant, they are not going to vote for ZERO when his goal in life is to ruin COAL, GAS, and other jobs with stated purposed to do so.

Tell me just ONE thing he has done that has produced a NET gain in jobs in this country. Don’t give me the bull of he has created 5 million jobs that were lost, that is a net ZERO.

Tell me what he will actually accomplish this coming term “IF” elected, and I do mean “IF” elected cause he won’t be, but tell me anyway to humor yourself since you think he will. I am very interested, because even ZERO has no idea what to do, it is written on his face during the moments he has to answer questions during debates, he hasn’t a clue, he just goes to his ‘Let me be clear,” and “As President….,” “I, ugh, er, well let me be clear” buy-some-time-while-I-think-of-some-BS-to-say card and makes absulutely nothing clear.

” Wow, you must think very low of Pennsylvanian’s intelligence.”

Aww, that is so clever. Speak for me, even though the Romney team’s actions mirror that behavioral pattern much more.

Ryan was MIA in PA from August 21. Ryan must think highly of the Pennsylvanians’ intelligence, to be MIA, stumping in OH forever, then finally giving up and resuming to stump in PA, 2 weeks before the election :-).

so the poll is 5% in favor of Mitt? so the sample is in favor of mitt by 5% based on voter registration? yes. yes.
ok, but what about the trend in American politics that republicans are more likely to vote in a given election than democrats, and democrats are more likely to split tickets in the ballot booth. Also polls measure enthusiasm. ok so that – may or may not explain the sample.
but what about the polls last month which were +8% democratic voters in states which were even or a majority of republican registered voters? no one called “bias” there. When a Virginia poll was at +4% for Obama despite Independents breaking for Romney nearly 20% and Democrats and Republicans sharing the same number of support for their candidate. this only reflected lopsided results which differed from the very people interviewed.

If Romney’s numbers continue to hold up after this weekend’s polling data, then there’s an excellent chance that he will win the presidency. Hopefully, the fact that Obama’s lied all over the place and was aided by his tag team partner, Candy (the beast) Crowley’s broadsiding of Romney on the Libya issue, will be seen for what it was by the American public. If the polling data tightens again, then Romney’s going to have to go for Obama’s jugular in the Monday debate with Libya the key attacking point.

Under W’s watch, 16 embassies or consulates were bombed. Carter, Reagan, Bush One, Clinton, Bush Two all had terrorist attacks happen on their watch. Now all the sudden conservatives are outraged? If predicting an attack by insane people bent on random violence was so easy to stop…why didn’t Bush stop the hijackers on 9/11. He actually had intelligence on muslim men wanting to learn how to fly planes without a concern how to land. He did nothing. What lie did Obama tell? He never said it was a random demonstration…that came from other people in the adm. who have since admitted that was false. He stood up and took the blame. I guess republicans are not used to one of their candidates doing that so it must have been a shock.

You are missing the point. Obama claimed that the attack arose out of a demonstration that was motivated by that stupid garage video for close to two weeks after the attack. The CIA and the State Dept both knew it was a straight terrorist operation less than a day after the Ambassador was killed. So unless we are to believe this was never reported to the White House, Obama knowingly misrepresented the nature and cause of the attacks on multiple occasions; probably for political reasons.

Wow….you are really missing the point….., so you reveal yourself as ZERO supporter.

Let me help you, the point isn’t that TERRORISTS have attacked Anerica nder various Presidents.

THE POINT is however that this President refused to emphatically state this was a TERRORIST ATTACK for more than 14 days by sending out his minions to point to an obscure video as the source of the attack.

If you would like to believe as Candy Crowley stated in 2nd Presidential Debate that ZERO did in fact say this was a terrorist attack in the Rose Garden 3 days after the attack, then reality us something foreign to you. If ZERO really wanted Americans to believe the attackws terrorist in nature…….then why did HIS people spent the next 11 days calling it something else.

The simple answer is obvious, but its reality is not something you will ever get….you support idiocy and its result is obviously ZERO love.

LOL! Sorry, but of by “he” you mean Hillary, then you would be correct. Hillary took the blame. Obama did what he always does which was divert the blame to someone else. Unf’ng believable what you bots spout.

It’s blogs like these that move education up higher and higher on my list. Had you had a quality education, Nobama, especially one that included a course in Aristotelian logic, you could not publish a statement like this:
“that Mitt Romney is ready to join former President George Bush “41” as the most recent GOP presidential candidate to win the Keystone State.”

If Mitt Romney becomes president, he will SUPPLANT Bush 41 as the most recent GOP presidential candidate . . .

What blame? Nobody did anything wrong — or at least as far as you know.

I’m wondering if these “best of the best Americans” were in charge of taking out Qaddafi and this was a revenge killing by Qaddafi loyalists.

Reread the number one whistleblower of the 20th century, John Le Carre. If there was a “control” and an assassination team of SEALs, they’d have looked and acted (and be spoken of) just like Chris Stevens, with Embassy cover and closely attended by a pack of trained SEALs.

CassandraSays, you are a very condescending person who is so full of herself. And you are an example of a quality education? Hardly, dear. If you have a degree, it’s worth a couple of sheets of toilet paper because like Obama, your intellect exposes you as being mediocre at best. Second, what the frig are you writing about? I have typed one and only one comment on this blog up to this point in time, and what you purport I have written is incorrect, and you simply are lying. By the way, the name is no”m”obama. I suppose reading was something in which you might have had difficulty in the past.

As our exalted leader once eloquently put it, You Pennsylvanians are just “bitter people that cling to your guns and religion”. Obama will run wild on Pennsylvania and in his second term he will finish the job of crushing your coal and gas industries. Good luck finding jobs once Obama shuts you suckers down! As Obama said, bringing up the cost of energy is necessary if we are ever going to have a viable green energy sector. It is a shame that many people will suffer from it but sometimes progress hurts.

Gas is green energy and has been a major part of Obama’s green energy vision from way back.

What some of your paymasters may object to is his determination to develop natural gas without endangering the life and health of the workers involved in producing and transporting it, its consumers, or people living in the vicinity of its production or transport.

Coal has been a harsh master. It’s the 21st century. We can do better exploiting this natural resource than we have done up until now.

Green jobs are clean jobs; do you really know a coal miner who wants his kids to spend their lives down in the mine?

They only ever went down in that mine because it was the only game in town. Happily, the abilities and experience suitable to coal suit gas production also.

Gas in Penn is a win-win as long as its development is monitored to avoid the sins seen in coal exploitation. We do that by making the sins into crimes. Let’s hear it for regulation!

The only reason you see more Romney/Ryan signs is because immoral rightwing nut-jobs keep taking them in the middle of the night.

I refute your description of “immoral rightwing nut-jobs”, Eliza, and the fact that you have no proof they’re stealing anything.

Grow up–or do you want me to us a fuscilade of nasty, derogatory terms to describe you and your party?

The leftwing nuts still try to spin the Libya attack. Thegnored thei memos memo from Ambassador Stephens that Red cross and British Embassy had been closed due to attack. US Embassy was attacked twice in April and June this year. AL-Quada flags were flying in buildings, Libya government declared that east Libya was in a dangerous area. Obama adm. ignored heir memo, leaving them in the harms way, meantime telling Americans that Al-Quada was at heel. Same thing for Afghan. CCBS reporter Logan accused Obama spreading this “big lie” for what she had 1st hand witness in Afghan and middle-east.
For thise don’t see Obam’s spin and lie, they are real left-wing nuts.

The fact that PA is still within reach for Romney, that is a good news. PA voters, in the end, will choose not to stay the course with Obama.
http://wp.me/p28mLX-qB

I live in one of the most liberal city neighborhoods of Pittsburgh. Four years ago you couldn’t walk four feet without tripping over a Obama/Biden yard sign. This year, you have to walk four blocks before seeing one.

I too , have noticed this absence everywhere, in my liberal N.Y. neighborhoods..that were once a ‘ sea ‘ of Obama signs..I also have a hunch, that many just aren’t saying they don’t intend to vote for him again…

please dont make me laugh,romney cant even win his own state.he is going to get blow out in Pennsylvania,and is goin to lose the election..period..

Next they’re going to say “No yard signs in CA, so Romney is going to win CA”.

LOL. The objective of Susquehanna poll is clear: to keep the flock from panicking because Ohio is a LOST cause for Romney, and it’s a herculean task to win without OH. The obvious way to cover up the herculean nature of the task is, instead of highlighting that EVERY other swing state will need to be swung, instead focus on PA, 20 EVs, that’s “Romney’s”….create the narrative, keep the base from panicking.

I’ll say it’s working!!! Look at the totally panic-less reactions from Romney supporters!

Romney can win without Ohio or Pennsylvania. He can win Wisconsin where is down by 2. During the recall election in Wisconsin the polls had Scott Brown even. He went out at 12 points and won by 8. Even without Wisconsin there is the Iowa/Nevada possibility.
The electoral count will be 315 Romney 233 Obama.
Buy energy stock. Intelligence is coming to D.C.

The lack of signs is due to the Obama economy. Nobody has the extra money to buy thesigns. 40% of americans don’t even have $500 in the bank.

“Even without Wisconsin there is the Iowa/Nevada possibility”

That “possibility” is this: Romney wins FL. And NC. And VA. And CO. And NV. And IA. All this to get to a 269-269 tie, and have Vice-President Biden instead of Vice-President Ryan.

Yeah, it’s possible. So is the “galloping GDP growth” plugged into Ryan’s spreadsheet. It’s not PLAUSIBLE. It’s not realistically significant in likelihood.

So, to return to your alternative scenario:
Say, as you said, Romney flips WI. To counter that, Obama could do one of the following:
1.IA+NV+NH (NH is the toughest of those 3. He’s consistently been ahead on the other 2).
2.CO+IA/NV (Oooh, that’s scary isn’t it. Romney’s never had comfortable traction in CO. Watch those “drug-soaked” nice guys, who I hazard will like Gary Johnson for his wonderful stance on drugs).
3.VA+IA/NV/NH (a little less likely than the 2nd scenario above).
4.FL (Please don’t wet your pants. FL is still close: really. And Romney needs FL much more than Obama does. And FL is much closer to flipping to O than PA is).

IMHO if I were on the Republicans’ strategy team, at this point, I’d try to make sure Ryan wins his Congressional House Seat :-).

romney will lose the election as he has no plans..his plans are bush failed recycled policies,obama is leading in every single poll of early voters,in iowa,winsonsin and florida,oh and if romney can win here,he would be campaigning here,but not doin so means his poll is telling him not to waste his time…

Wow you can’t be serious. He’s losing FLorida by 5 points. Suffolk polling pulled out of Florida and Virginia. They state Obama can’t win there so there is no need to continuing polling. Prediction: Romney 52 Obama 47.

Mike, no plan egh?

Apparently you close your ears when he has stated over and over and over the 5 point plan.

Wow, and ZERO has a plan that is better……adding more ZEROs to the right side of the acounting ledger for unemployment, and the national deficit.

Mike the andidote for your sickness is a reality dose. In all the Battleground Polls where Obama has meager leads, the Democrats are oversampled anywhere from D+6 to as high as D+12. Now when a poll like this comes out (D+8) showing ZERO is losing big-time all you have to say is “Romney will lose the election as he has no plans….”

You can’t be serious. Name one plan ZERO has proposed for the next 4 years that will produce anything greater than his sum NET ZERO job growth he has produced in the past 4 years.

He says he has created 5 million jobs…….pfffff, wow and he say Romney’s math doesn’t add up. ZERO presided over the loss of more than 5 million jobs over the past 4 years and has the gall to come out in a debate and tout his delusion that he has “created” 5 million jobs. Wow delusion.

Stop drinking the cool aid, get some help go to democrats anonymous with a few of your friends here.

ZERO will lose, its just a question of by how much.

Mike, not even you could keep your job/company with the piss poor results ZERO has produced. Get over it, I know it is sad and you feel like crying, but help is really on the way in the Romney/Ryan plan. No it won’t be easy, but I can guarantee you they will actually pull up their own sleeves and get to work, not spend 4 years blaming ZERO for the goose egg he put up.

No actually Rasmussen has Romney winning in early voting in Wisconsin and he’s def not going to lose FL

I believe Pennsylvania will go to Romney. There seems to be an undercurrent, not reflected in the polls..As a New Yorker in a heavily Democrat controlled State, I’m not seeing any Obama signs. However, what I think is telling is that New Jersey, which was solidly Obama on the Real Clear Politics Electoral College Map, has been downgraded for Obama to only ” leaning ” towards Obama. The next step would be ‘ toss-up’ status. I think after Monday’s Foreign Policy debate, and the tragedy in Libya, Obama is going to see more real negativity in the polls.

I totally agree. Now real way to get around Libya. Its either professional Neglect or a cover up. Truth is it was never a post debate bounce. This is more of a wave. Very similar to 1980 (actually almost identical)

This is the first comment that actually screams out at me. I was talking to a friend the other day and he said that this feels like 1980 all over again. Even the candidate. President up for re-elecction that was elected on an emotional high by the electorate. Then came the disappointment from wrong policies and failed policies. Finally a candidate came in who was credible and presidential. If you listen to Romney speak, he even sounds like Reagan. Amazaing.

You must have been living under a rock for the last 2 years. Hannity had invented the “Carter-Reagan” meme almost right after the 2010 elections.

I lived through 1980–actually voted for Reagan twice, and it was like somebody took the suffocating pillow off your head, there was that much relief.

This economy is actually trending downward–worse than it was last year, which was worse than it was the year before. So unless you folks want to see yet another 4 years of downward trend (because a repeat of the last 4 years will be just a continuation of failed economic policies by a president that is clueless regarding the economy), you’d better make a change and hope Romney wins.

Otherwise, this small business owner won’t be hiring anybody–there won’t be any need to do so.

Right — “no real way to get around Libya.” It’s a case of horrible neglect leading up to the attack — really administrative malpractice in the extreme to have left the consulate with no real security. It highlights the enormity of Obama’s failure to attend most of his daily intelligence briefings, or otherwise to have a coherent foreign policy. And the cover up of the Benghazi Blunder — trying to blame the attack on an unforeseeable spontaneous attack spurred by a video — is worse than the original crime. ThAmericanople may

My question: Why is RealClearPolitics.com not (yet) including the SP&R polling data results from Pennsylvania? Is it simply because this SP&R poll reflects answers given before the second debate and is now considered outdated? Answer appreciated.

http://www.politicspa.com/updated-senate-pagop-poll-romney-49-obama-45/42817/

“The RCP average does not include this or any polls commissioned by partisan entities.”

You’re welcome.

I forgot to mention that RealClearPolitics.com is currently including a SP&R Pennsylvania poll dated October 8th in its average. Does anyone happen to know why RealClearPolitics.com would not be using the latest SP&R polling data from Pennsylvania to update its currect polling average?

BigGovernmentSocialConservative

Do u just come out of the cave from hiding 2 yrs? ACORN is gone, and no one drags those “registered domocrats in name only” out to vote. I don’t see Obama signs much in Philadelphia area. I live in the southeast area that this article talks about. Philadelphia is calm so far, no “Obama folk” in subway stations drag people to vote or register not like 4 yrs ago. Do u live in southeast PA, tell us what u see.

BGSC-

Delusion……….“The RCP average does not include this or any polls commissioned by partisan entities.”

…..Of course, the NYT is not partisan, nor is CNN, or PPP, or Fox, or……..BROTHER.

REALITY DOSE: just peek at the the sampling and you will know whether the poll is oversampled. What BGSC is saying is that a poll with D+6 to as high as D+12 is not partisan………, a gross misinterpretation of reality.

A libtard so engrossed in ZEROs destruction of American can’t be trusted with the reality of the situation because it means nothing to them. Just look at all of BGSC other posts touting various oversampled polls, and voter registration memes.

Voter registration matters, but not nearly as much as voter turnout (Republican advantage), and voter enthusiasm (Republican advantage).

Man I just love it when Libtards drink cool aid……..

Paul,
I already answered you. The poll was COMMISSIONED by the PA GOP (unlike the other PA poll you’re referring to).

This was marketing material prepared by the PA GOP. The data may, and appears to have been fudged to fit the predetermined output objective.

Thank you for your answer regarding the RC&P Pennsylvania poll dated October 8th. I have now read in the RC&P methodology that :”This (October 8th) poll was conducted for the Premium Access Club subscribers of Susquehanna Polling.” Again, thanks so much!

Where does his Teflon approach to issues fit in?

If Our Dear Leader is losing PA then he is in trouble everywhere.

He can’t lost PA.

Think about it… Democrats have a huge head start in every election. Its almost amazing they don’t win more elections. They ALWAYS get California, Minnesota, Michagin, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Always. (exception being Reagan)

California alone is worth 55 elec. votes. New York 29. Illinois 20, NJ 14, and PA is 20.

You look at what states always go red and you see much smaller numbers. Texas 38 being the largest. Next biggest? Georgia at 16. Then everything else is below 10.

Each election is about swing states and only swing states. It is something i think was designed this way because of how large the country is.

Its pretty lame if you ask me.

I don’t know which “side” of the aisle you are on, but I am opposed to Ryan, and prefer whoever has the best chance at beating that Sociopath and his Sociopathic agenda.

Having said that, it’s quite possible now, that President Obama wins the EC race but possibly loses the popular vote.

I expect to hear a lot of chatter from the RW about the shortcomings of the EC system, and I’ll agree at that point.

There’s no value for a marginal vote in CA or TX. You won’t see President Obama campaigning in CA, or Mitt Romney campaigning in TX. They need to be, each is taking for granted the marginal vote in those states. The marginal vote in TX/CA should (IMHO) have the same value as a marginal vote in OH, and clearly it doesn’t.

Carmen, Carmen……, we are a Republic, with “representatives.” We are represented by Senators, Congressional delegates, and during elections by electors based on populations within each state.

Yes the Democrats currently have very large dependant populations creating their advantages. Note those Democrat states’ economic policies are all in dire straights. If you think that voting for dependancy is the solution vote for ZERO and every Democrat and over time just watch those states continue to econimically implode and crime shoot up.

I live in CA. Our state has had democratic
Legislature for over 30 years. I would like the rest of the country to look at the results. We have environmental regulations that put farms and orchards out of business last drought. The government unions get what they want at the expense of the tax payer CA has its own cap and trade and dream act. The business environment is hostile and we have two propositions on this ballot to raise taxes on everyone which is still not enough to bail out the state employees retirement deficit. Please investigate CA progressive rule before you decide which party should run the country.

Don’t also under estimate the dummy vote in America. A very large % of voters know nothing about politics and just vote for who they are told to vote for.

Look no further than Jimmy Kimmels (spelling is rough i think) skit where he asked people who won the 2nd debate BEFORE the 2nd debate happened. They all said Obama.

I have no hope anymore for this country.

I owe you an apology

This is hilarious. Not news. Not independent. Not science. Not worth my time.

How in the hell does this end up on my RCP article feed? Because RCP is opaquely conservative. Sigh. Americans.

BE nice. Be gentle. But for articles like this, the Romney-Ryan flock would start panicking seeing how steady Obama’s lead in OH is holding out.

You DON’T want RWers panicking. At-least, if you’re RCP.

The only group panicing are members of ZERO’S team and people like you trying to spin the story line. The real story is polls like this showing that even with a D+8 sample Obama us losing……

Get a grip on reality…..if you are holding the RCP average as the standard and supporting “anonymous” in his position that somehow all of the polls in the RCP are somehow independantly unbiased is laughable.

In most polls put out by libtard media entities this season, and even surprisingly FOX due to the liberal nutjob pollster assisting in them, Democrats are oversampled in ridiculous numbers. So even when polls show ZERO winning he is actually losing. Man libtard mafia/media has you snowed.

Just tell me, do you actually believe the propaganda sampling is anywhere close to what reality will prove Nov 6th?

Either way, welcome to the Republican
Rescue beginning in January.

ZERO will be precisely that……

He has 5 points to his plan if you care to look, Dave.

1) Energy independence by developing our own natural sources (and as an engineer in the raw materials field, I can tell you this will work!)

2) Educational opportunities to fill the new jobs created.

3) Emphasis on trade, requiring fair trade with China (that’s where most of our jobs went because of their unfair trade practices).

4) Cut the deficit. We’ve had two credit rating cuts due to overspending.

5) Champion small business, since that’s where the majority of new jobs come from.

These are the pillars of a successful plan. They sound a lot better than emphasis on Big Bird and Binders, don’t you think?

I love the soundness of a plan based on reality!

Romney wont win PA…Susquenna is a FAR right pollster who constantly cooks the books to make the state more competitive than it is….

Aside from the people in his will, i don’t know hoe it possible for another human being to like Mitt Romney….He is an arrogant, smug, mean spirited, condscending, self righteous elitist who thinks he’s entitled to the presidency…Oh ans BTW, his ideas are terrible to….He’s stuck in a 1940′s social policy and he was a lousy governor at MA…The state ranked 47th in job creation during his tenure…so much for that BS that Romney will create jobs…He can create wealth for himself, but he can’t create jobs….and he will NEVER win PA, especially since the judge struck down voter ID until next election..

Obama 2012

I live in PA, and it will be very hard for Romney to win the state BUT he has a chance, here is why:

#1 Coal – Romney is winning over the Coal folks which is huge is PA
#2 College Students/Recent Grads – The hope and change promised in 2008 did not come true, they are working at McDonalds
#3 JOBS – Obama has no plan whatsoever. What is his plan – please let us know.
#4 Romney is not the person painted by the liberal left and the mainstream media, sponsored by the letter O and the # 16 Trillion
#5 Voter turnout will be hugely in favor of the Republicans vs the Democrats – many 2008 Obama voters will simply not vote

Steve,

The reason i think Obama will win PA is because I expect him to win Bucks and Montgomery counties very handily….Romney/Ryan are TOOOOO far right on social issues, social conservatism works in the middle part of PA (aka Alabama) but not in Bucks/montgomery counties and certainly not in Allegheny and Philadelphia counties….
There is no way possible a republican can win in PA if he cannot win in bucks and Montgomery counties, there are no other places to pick up votes….I think you are really over-estimating coal – besdies Romney is the one who pointed to a coal plant and sdaid “This plant kills”…Come on, do you really think Romney gives a damn about people who work in coal?…Romney cares about people who own NFL teams, not people who work in f-ing coal….

Obama 2012

Anonymous,

I think you underestimate the intelligence of the people in PA. Do you
really think people are siding with Obama on the Coal issue with the
rhetoric you quoted about Coal? The Coal miners have lived through
the devastating EPA changes put in by the Obama administration. There
is no doubt as to which candidate is better for the Coal industry. Coal
will live and be stronger with Romney and Obama will eliminate it if has 4
more years.

Social issues are not the leading topic in PA. Jobs are. If PA voters want
jobs – Romney is the clear choice. $8.50 a month contraceptives are not
as important as you liberals think. They would rather have a job.

Florida is Romney, OH will be Romney – and perhaps PA. Gulp…..

“One” or “10″ or “12 million” jobs is not a plan, fgs. It’s a number. “I will create 12 million jobs” is not a plan, it’s a political promise.

You ask them “How will you do that?” They explain how they will do that.

THAT’s a plan.

The “five-point plan” is a list of five things devoutly to be wished, with no plan attached to any of them.

Anonymous, just love your “Far Right” pollster spin…..again even with a D+8 sample ZERO is losing.

Review all polls, not just this one and take a peak at the Libdard influence/propaganda with D+6 to D+12 sampling and ask yourself if even you have been drinking a tad bit too much of ZERO’S cool aid.

Democrat’s Anonymous could help, but addiction requires that you recognize you have a problem (BTW you do) and might even relapse.

Nate Silver @ http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/
Pennsylvania
Obama chance of winning: 89%
Romney chance of winning: 11%
on 10/20/12

Pennsylvania
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 49.1 44.2 Obama +4.9
Adjusted polling average 48.6 44.9 Obama +3.7
State fundamentals 50.0 44.1 Obama +5.9
Now-cast 48.8 44.8 Obama +4.0
Projected vote share ±3.5 51.6 47.3 Obama +4.3
Chance of winning 89% 11%

Really? Nate Silver and the NYT? LOL! The NYT and Nate are so far in the tank for Obama that they have Gills and spend 12 hours a day breathing in a tank of Obama Kool-Aide! LOL!

Valwayne-

That was funny “they have Gills and spend 12 hours a day breathing in a tank of Obama Kool-Aide! LOL!”

They that support ZERO, support nothing……., and thus have nothing which is why they actually believe the lies that he spouts saying he will “give” them something.

I will say this for the record for now and all time: Libtards are nothing but whinny little tomato throwing crabs who will never……, and I do mean never,……crawl out of the little box the Democrat Machine has placed them in.

Do they think? Can’t they look around the box they live in and realize they could climb out………? Sad when they try another Libtard pulls them back in, says they should be tax more, even though they are paying far more than their fair share, they get a bunch more crabs saying pay your fair share etc, etc, etc when they already are.

Break free Democrat minions, break free from being a Libtard……

“Break free Democrat minions, break free from being a Libtard……”

My my my, that is the most convincing sales pitch I have heard. Merely being called a “minion”, a “Libtard” makes me SO want to listen to you…am sure you work wonders with your approach to discussing solutions to issues people are interested in, not necessarily listening to your sales pitch :-)

NYT – I’m laughing, laughing, laughing…..

Leslie looks like you should also go to “Democrats Anonymous” with Mr/Ms anonymous. I know it is ssid the cool aid tastes realy, really good, but from the perspective of an outsider observer, you need some help. You have an addiction and are not thinking clearly

Please see my comments above to Anonymous.

Help is on thev way. Believe in the D+8 or greater oversampling all you please, believe you will win by a landslide or whatever…..scream afterwards its a stolen election……..whatever. ZERO is currently losing in almost ALL the polls, its just that people with too much cool aid in the veins can’t logically deduce fantasy from reality.

It’s kind of funny seeing the Libs stating that Romney has no chance all the while Obama’s campaign is in a tailspin.
One key fact that people fail to see is the Independent vote. Romney leads Obama by 11% with that vote. Anything above 8% spells landslide for Romney. Also people keep thinking that voter turnout will be like 2008. Sorry folks it won’t be. The undecided vote will also be in favor of Romney.

“One key fact that people fail to see is the Independent vote”

Fella, get on with the times. The “Independent” vote isn’t uniformly distributed across the country. For example, PA has far more registered (R+D) compared to Independents. The election is NOT decided by an aggregate metric of I across the country: the POPULAR VOTE may be decided by how Independents lean as an aggregate.

The Presidential race, in the real world where I live in, is won by the electoral college method.

Thanks for trying to distract the discussion from the Susquehanna poll, and how much it measured the pulse in PA right now. At-least, you did it in a transparent manner.

BGSC, are you suggesting that the Independent voters of PA won’t have an effect on how the 20 EV’s of PA are cast?

“are you suggesting that the Independent voters of PA won’t have an effect on how the 20 EV’s of PA are cast? ”

Why do you try to put words in my mouth? I said the Democrats have a bigger registration advantage than the post-LV sample. The post-LV sample is biased towards R, and it would work plausibly, if the % of Independents were higher: the under-representation of the “New/Young Voter” in the LV model could be cancelled out by the sum of (Enthusiasm difference, Independent Voter breakout away from D (if it happened at the state level)…IF the state level % of I were something more significant.

At 36.97:50.06%:12.97%, you’re going to need more than Enthusiasm+Independent breakout to bridge the 1.109 MILLION registration advantage.

I’m not sure how asking you a clarifying question “puts words in your mouth”,

“I said the Democrats have a bigger registration advantage than the post-LV sample.”

Actually you didn’t. You said, “PA has far more registered (R+D) compared to Independents.”

“At 36.97:50.06%:12.97%, you’re going to need more than Enthusiasm+Independent breakout to bridge the 1.109 MILLION registration advantage.”

Your response hear is much more detailed and effective than “Fella, get on with the times” and “Thanks for trying to distract the discussion from the Susquehanna poll”.

For the record, I happen to agree that the Susquehanna poll alone should not cause the Romney campaign to begin counting unhatched chickens in PA.

In 2008 Obama called the working people of PA, “Bitter, Bible thumping, gun toting, bigots. Then he was elected President has has given us 4 years of UNEMPLOYMENT, DEBT, Foodstamps, division, decline, and misery. Worse, Obama has NO PLAN to make anything better. Just more debt, UNEMPLOYMEN, Government, misery, and Decline! Gov Romney has a plan, and he respect working people. PA has the chance once again to be the KEYSTONE that restores our nation by voting for Gov Romney!

Well written, you give many points substantiating your poll favoring Romney, and that is why Romney is running ahead, I like how you broke down Pennsylvania geographically and demographically and explain why your figures correlate. I see why you’ve gotten into the polling business and It shows in your writing, you enjoy what you do.

People believe Romney when he says he can get the country going again..He backed up by a resume–Businessman—the Olympics —Govenor. Obama essentially came out of nowhere. When he was elected, the conditions were right–there was Iraq and Bush and people were thirsty for a big change. He offered it. But Obama hasn’t delivered. Romney feels like a candidate who will deliver. He’s laid out a 5 point plan that is sensible and will, at the least, get the economy rolling, without resorting to Obama’s belief in stimulas borrowing and debt(which has already started us on the the track for inflation) Romney calls this an “economy tax” He’s a smart man, plus he’s not frightened to express his moral compass. Americans need and want to hear our positives. Obama’s rhetoric has been divisive from the start. Socially and economically, he’s too far to the left, whereas Romney is center, slightly right., which is what most Americans that inhabit reality are.(check your poll data on that) I believe what you’ve written will come to light. Thank You

“Romney is center, slightly right., which is what most Americans that inhabit reality are”

That’s a total canard…The deep south is center right, most of the northeast, New England, coastal west, and some of the interior west is center left….

As far as Obama being too far left, well, i guess when you read the Trib Review and listen to Rush Limbaugh all day, anyone left of Ronald Reagan is too far left..

Obama 2012

Actually, Anonymous (strange name–are you a friend of Bills? or OWS?) The country is really neither right, left, center,Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, etc. The country is Conservative at it’s roots. I am a conservative-libertarian and I stand tall and strong. Obama is a social engineer, he believe he knows what’s best for all of us. I’m opposed to that. If you need someone to hold your hand, please vote for Obama. Respectfully,

this is the best example of what I CALL living in a BUBBLE. In the GOP bubble PA is going for Romney.

It’s really easy. Sell the narrative in OH. Sell it again. Sell it AGAIN. Sell it AGAIN.

When it doesn’t gain traction, 16 days before an election, take the same narrative and try to sell it in PA. Because winning ALL other swing states is a path that’s not going to work.

The narrative was SO good for PA, that’s why Ryan-Romney didn’t go to PA until now :-).

What BIBLE are you clinging to “biblerox”

D+8 oversampling still shows ZERO losing and you are calling that a bubble. Look up all the polls you tout as ZEROs advantage then ask yourself if you really believe them, really believe the Democrats will come out to worship ZERO the way they did in the last election.

Reality says, not a chance in the evolutionary cycle (and I don’t even believe in evolution)……

Of course I could be wrong, however I actually have faith that Pennsylvanians are NOT stupid regardless of their party affiliation and will overwhelmingly vote for Romney based on the reality that ZERO has produced a huge jaw flapping nothing in 4 years.

“I actually have faith that Pennsylvanians are NOT stupid regardless of their party affiliation”

That’s why you refer to them as “Democratic minions” and “Libtards”, and ask them to break free. I get the idea, and am sure others do, too.

nov6 bye bye black birds

[...] Mitt Romney Can Win Pennsylvania Because He Is Winning the “Jobs” Argument « Voter Survey Servi…. [...]

A poll commissioned by republicans shows their candidate suddenly ahead after being behind by double digits just four weeks ago? Surprise, surprise, surprise. Under Barack Obama, the stock market is up 100 percent since March 2009, the massive job losses suffered over the WHOLE LAST YEAR OF W’S TERM have turned to 31 straight months of positive numbers, and Romney’s promised to create 12 million jobs…even though he says govt. doesn’t create jobs. Now imagine what a promised bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities will do to the economy, gas prices and the jobs numbers in the USA? Romney has promised a 20 percent tax cut to everyone, increase military spending, to cut taxes on corporations (who are already sitting on record amounts of cash), and to balanced the budget. Vote for Romney at your peril America.

The stock market is up b 100%, the stock market is up, the stock market is up, the stock market is up………………..blaa, blaa, bla!

Tim- the stock market is 30 stocks, market makers are going to ride it up or down and take profits (something you libtards are against, or at a minimum want to tax 70%)

ZERO is a disaster and you tout an agrigate of 30 companies that ZERO would love to tax into oblivion as his masterpiece?

For fun, let’s just say that Romney is full of crap because he is “promising” 12 million jobs. Now lets compare that to ZERO’s confirmed production of minus 23 million people out of work and you really know who is full of crap. He is so full of crap he wants you to believe he created 5 million jobs when he is in fact up a mere NET GAIN of just over 123,000 jobs in almost 4 years………, I know, I know you want to pull out the Bush card but get over it. ZERO was hired to fix the problem, not continually blame Bush for all the ZEROs ZERO puts up.

Romney doesn’t even compare to ZERO’s incompetent production of nothing in a 4 year period.

And YOU are still supporting ZERO egh? Wow! Please get help, listen and read anything but the Libtard media, check out some of the polls internals, read some economics books and journals. You definately can learn something about economics.

ZERO’s plan are NOT working!

[...] has Mitt Romney with a lead over Obama by a 49-45 margin. In addition to the poll they have written an article, Mitt Romney Can Win Pennsylvania Because He Is Winning The “Jobs” Argument. Read the [...]

Wishful thinking. Internal polling by both campaigns shows little chance-the Dem wins for the sixth consecutive Presidential election. Romney has actually been smart; in ’08 Mccain/Palin wasted valuable time and money in PA till late in the game and lost the state by almost ten points. Romney has been invisible both in person and in ads this cycle.
I believe Romney can realistically win the general election-but not with PA support.

“I believe Romney can realistically win the general election”

But HOW?

Obama has 201 Likely/Leaning Blue, plus MI (16) and PA (20) where Romney hasn’t gained any kind of traction to shake up the state race.

OH has been unbreakable. That’s 255. If WI goes Obama’s way, that’s 265. IF WI does go Obama’s way, then Romney has to win EVERY other State: Includes Nevada, Iowa, NH, Virginia, Colorado, none of where he’s put a margin of comfort, and is actually trailing in the first two.

Of course, if he swings WI, then he can lose two of NV,Iowa, NH but not all 3. Swinging WI itself is a herculean task. On top of that, he’d have to retain all the other swing states (VA, CO etc) AND win one of NV, IA, NH. Sure he can win NH. But he’d have to do that AND win WI and guard VA/CO. And Florida.

It can happen. It seems unlikely. Obama’s firewall is strong even now.

OH has a Rep Governor, a Rep Legislature and a Rep majority even in Congress. Why in the world would you think a Rep can’t win in OH? The whole damned state is run by Republicans!

These are good pts. I also think that Obama’s silly attack on coal and oil while now 36 failed green glop industries have gone bankrupt is a telling fact. Ryan is coming to Pa. to the Pitt. area. I hope he is warmly received. Pa. needs to have its coal,steel and oil industries rewarded not punished. Just because Phila. is so large with minority lemmings for Obama , the rest of Pa. should not be punished for that arrogance. And what of foreign policy? Do not Pa. voters care that the Arab Spring has Sprung? Just today, the One’s Muslim Bros. buddies just asked Iran for…nukes. And he already has dissed Israel and then there are the increasing lies over Benghazi. How can any American accept and trust the crew when it comes to domestic and international security???

I’m not saying 4 dead Americans is a “good” outcome, but as long as other countries exist, the possibility of a terrorist attack will exist.

So shelving aside the hyperbole over the fact that a terrorist attack happened:
YOUR crew (Ryan et al) ALLOWED a terrorist attack to happen ON DOMESTIC US Soil (unlike Benghazi), where over 3000 Americans died.

Then, YOUR crew sent over 4000 of our troops to die in a war waged on a country that didn’t attack us, and thereby regrowing the bonds of Islamic terrorism across state boundaries.

You trust RYAN’s crew over Obama’s crew? Seriously?

BGSC-

Wow, your argument is idiotic! Are you trying to equate “pretending” an act of terror is something else (related to a YouTube video no one has seen), and spending 14 days doing so is even remotely similar to W standing on the ground in NY and stating in-FACT that 9/11 was a terrorist attack?

4 people versus 4,000 has NOTHING to do with the reality of Benghazi or your messiah’s idiocy! ZERO’s logic is a joke and so is yours. That cool-aide has some unbelievably adverse side effects and is clearly affecting your ability to reason with any kind of credibility.

To help you understand: ZERO sending out minions to lie to the American people, over and over and over for 14 days is the real issue. It shows us the lack of a soul that ZERO possesses, and really gives us a clue into how stupid he really believes we all are.

…….and you support him? Truly amazing. And what does Ryan have to do with this? It was ZERO’s policy and talking points that his minions touted and defended for more than 2 weeks, and now that you cannot spin the storyline you change subjects and deflect going to the “Blame Bush” card again trying to equate ZERO’s allowing of 4 people to die, as if Bush “allowed’ 4,000 to die even computes.

Talk about going back in time…….

“It shows us the lack of a soul that…”

Please proceed, “Reality Dose”.

The narrative here alone leaves considerable doubt regarding the integrity of the Susquehanna poll. Numerous assertions are made that could not possibly be supported by polling data. Re-read the article and then ask yourself, how is this or that conclusion could be drawn from what voters were actually asked (favorability, number one concern, intention to vote for X or Y).

As for the poll itself, the article essentially says all other polls are wrong, make the wrong assumptions, under sample Republicans and on and on. But thanks anyway to the Republican Party and Washington Examiner for trying to set us straight.

You are closer to the truth then you realize. I live in Washington and am familiar with this reputable journalistic establishment. Bottom line is that it is piece of junk, arch conservative free newspaper that gets hawked to people. Mostly it immediately ends up in the recycle bins at the subway gates. No paid circulation because what they generally publish is junk.

John-

Really? Wow; “considerable doubt regarding the integrity of the Susquehanna poll. Numerous assertions are made that could not possibly be supported by polling data.”

D+8 is pretty generous don’t you think? Should it be D+1 million, ………..would that make you happy?

If ZERO was still losing then would you still have “considerable doubt regarding the polls integrity?”

What are the “numerous assertation that cannot be possibly supported by polling data?” Are you staying Pennsylvanians are so stupid they can’t say “I am voting for Zero, or I am voting for Romney, or I am not sure but leaning towards so-in-so.”

Wow, I am confounded by the unbelievable idiocy of Libtards……

Of course, Romney can win Pennsylvania. But he will not. Too many people here recognize that Voodoo economic policies of Reagan and Bush, which is all that Romney offers, do not work. We were better off under Clinton and we are becoming better off under Obama.

Voodoo economics? I will compare Reagan and Bush’s first term results against Obama’s any day.

Tripling the debt is better than a 49% growth in debt eh?
Unemployment at this point during St Reagan’s years was higher than when he took office. Unemployment now is lower than when O took office.
Your prefer

ha, ha,……”we are becoming better off under ZERO”

Unbelievable….., that cool-aide must be laced with something really stiff.

mrunpc

Here you go:

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/voter_registration_statistics/12725

36.95%:50.06%:12.97%

It looks even more daunting if you look at it in terms of numbers.
1.109 MILLION more registered Democrats in PA.

The “Independent” affiliation national average in registration is not a constant across state lines. It has state level variability, and it is substantial, as you can see.

Could be worse. Like here in Little Rhody where I live, Republicans won’t even advertise their party affliliation on their media buys or yard signs. I found the PA numbers you posted most persuasive.

40% of all registered voters never end up at the polls. Of those who never show, over two to one (43% democrat to 18% republican) are democrats. That evens the odds a bit. Add the intensity of a 16% republican advantage according to Rasmussen and you see how the numbers begin to work.

You are wrong. In a presidential election anywhere from 85 to 90 percent of registered voters show up to vote. The problem is that 40% of eligible people are not registered.

“You are wrong. In a presidential election anywhere from 85 to 90 percent of registered voters show up to vote. The problem is that 40% of eligible people are not registered.”

In 2008, 68.65% of registered voters actually voted in PA according to the State of PA. In 2004, 68.96%. In 2000, 63%.
The % of the voting age population that was registered to vote in those years was: 2008 – 90.39%, 2004 – 87.02%, 2000 – 83%.

BGSC-

1 million plus Democrat advantage, but basically 43% of them won’t show up 430,000. “It looks even more daunting if you look at it in terms of numbers.” Ha, ha, ha.

Daunting to say the least. What is daunting is the economy with 23 million out of work, a President that spent the last 10 months not even meeting with his “Jobs Counsel” and then expecting us to vote for him, now THAT is daunting!

Good luck in every state you Libtards, good luck. There is absolutely no question you will lose with ZERO, as has America over the past 4 years.

There is a huge baseball bat that will hit you up side the head this November 6th and it will take you days to wake up to the reality that you lost but America won. Enjoy the next few months of Pardons, and wrangling for stuff.

Rescue is on the way

hispanics 1%. not likely

*Yawn*….the crazy always seems to spike as election day nears.

Rasmussen (10/9) O 51 R 46 (O+5)

PPP (10/12 — 10/14) O 51 R 44 (O+7)

Quinnipiac (10/12 — 10/14) O 50 R 46 (O+4)

Philadelphia Inquirer (10/4 — 10/8) O 50 R 42 (O+8)

Mitt Romney has about as much chance of winning Pennsylvania as the retard who wrote this article.

Your creditability would be higher if you posted a current poll – you do know it is 10/20?

You do realize the Susquehanna poll was 10/11 – 10-13? Therefore, it is no more credible than the other polls listed.

And your credibility would be higher if you learned how to spell, but let me address your point. Please do tell, since we’re all dying to know, what are the latest polls in Pennsylvania? The one cited in the article, yes, and what else? Oh that’s right: all the polls I listed. Unless you want me to fabricate recent polls, the best evidence we have points to an easy Obama victory in Penn; I estimate around 52% of the vote (down from the 55% O got in 2008) based on these numbers.

Four years ago the energy in Pennsylvania for Obama was electric. Now his supporters seem apologetic. A family member here who strongly supported him last time around is disenchanted and plans to sit this election out. A close friend who was proudly for Obama four years ago emphatically told me the other night that he certainly will NOT do the same this election. Granted, these are anecdotal, but it sure looks to me like Pennsylvania may well go for Romney.

Obama has a 9 to 1 chance of winning PA.

Brian……, and this is based on the scientifically peer reviewed “5-38 blog” study of the ages?

Suggestion: For a Reality Dose check out the University of Denver Scientifically Peer Reviewed Prediction Model that has yet to ever be wrong, they say Romney will win Pennsylvania.

I was really thinking about going with your thoughts Brian, but on second thought……nah!

“How Candy Crowley defeated the GOP!”
The Republicans have been trying to manufacture a case against Obama by taking his remark as a generalization rather than as specifically focused on the death of the ambassador. But their outrage appears to have deeper roots in the carefully contrived crafting of a trap for Obama to justify their claims that his foreign policy in the Middle East has been a failure. The plan has several elements, which the talking heads and the press have failed to see.

“Because money has no bounds for Romney’s supporters, who stand to benefit from the trillions in tax breaks he wants to impose, including eliminating taxes on capital gains and abolishing the estate tax, bribing a member of the ambassador’s staff would have been child’s play.

Romney’s initial criticism was issued within two minutes of Hillary Clinton’s announcement about the attack. How was that even possible, unless it had been contrived? It should be obvious that this very professional execution was carried out by highly-trained mercenaries or members of the Mossad.”

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2012/10/19/how-candy-crowley-defeated-the-gop/

Yes, Romney will win PA. These polls are vastly understating quite how pissed off Republicans are. I mean hell, we turned out by the millions to support a chicken sandwich!

No… he won’t. I’ll bet you 10,000 bux hahahahahahaha.

In all seriousness, you have 9 to 1 odds AGAINST Mitt winning PA.

Brian-

“No… he won’t. I’ll bet you 10,000 bux”

Is that elementary school stuff still working for you?

The University of Denver has a computer modeling program that has correctly predicted every presidential race since 1980, with extreme accuracy on the electoral count. It predicts PA will go to Romney.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win/

Lol…do you know what the word “prediction” means?

BGSC-

The University of Denver predicion model has been wrong……………………….as in NEVER!

You must have a point in their somewhere by dismissing an actual peer-reviewed scientific prediction model with your “Prediction” mantra……, oh thats right the Univeristy of Denver is actually fact-based and counter to your predictions, so you pull out the “Prediction Card” now.

Nice touch, anything else?

BGSC, BTW when I am describing Libtards, and minions, this is not offensive to real Democrats with a brain, it only offends actual Libtards and minions, because they aren’t thinking, they are just pulling out old tired excuses for why they want to take from others and give to non-producers……which is really all ZERO is offering. If you somehow don’t fit into that category, please by all means remove yourself from ZERO’s little box and set yourself free. I do believe and have faith in real Americans regardless of party affiliation, I actually have Liberal friends who are not Libtards, they actually think and can admit when particular policies and minion talk are exactly that, and similarly, I am proud to say have done the same.

This current election is actually about FAILURE, not the failure of Romney, not even that he is the ideal candidate. It is about the absolute failure of ZERO. Of all his accomplishments in his mind, or your for that matter, the only one that the common man on the street could even point to an know by name is Obamacare, and that my friend was almost a non-starter if a Conservative hadn’t of switched at the last minute. ObamaCare isn’t even an accomplishment of Obama, it was rammed down Americans’ throats, and who are still against it by 60% margins as we speak.

Please, name actual result ZERO has achieved this past 4 years to give the rest of us Americans any evidence that he would actually do anything he says he will do in the next 4 years.

With Romney while he is not the perfect candidate by a long shot, I for one am willing to give him a try due to his prior actual successes and real results.

I also believe other Americans will do the same and confirm the Scientific Model from the University of Denver that “predicts” Romney will not only win Pennsylvania, but also the White House.

BGSC begins with a show of temperate unbiassed doubts about the poll. Within three posts he is a strident advocate for Obama. I read him at first then recognized the same old same old divert ploy.

If a conservative like Pat Toomey can win the U.S. Senate seat in PA in 2010, Romney can win this state as well.

Romney is an underdog in PA but it is becoming increasingly possible. I wonder how the social issues are playing in PA. Obama’s positions on social issues are more radical than any presidential candidate in history. His convention theme was basically more abortions for free, he supports redefining marriage, and giving special benefits to illegal aliens. I can’t imagine any of these issues helps him in PA, which is a moderate state but with many pro-life Catholics, as well as one of the oldest states in the country.

“The budget for 2009 had already been passed, when Obama got into office. He didn’t get to do massive course-change. No President gets to do massive course-change in terms of the budget, in the first year. That’s why the 2009 deficit is attributed to Bush.”

Absolutely FALSE.

Obama signed an over $400 BILLION omnibus spending bill that Bush had threatened to veto.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/President44/story?id=7061084&page=1

Not to mention that this bill was put together by a Dem-controlled Congress.

Please stop with the Talking Points.
The facts don’t back-up your statements

LOL. The deficit was already trillion plus. And the stimulus had BIPARTISAN earmarks. Read your own link next time.

I like how you completely ignored the fact that you lied in your initial post when writing that “The budget for 2009 had already been passed, when Obama got into office.” It hadn’t. You also conveniently forget that the stimulus spending has been added into the budget baseline every year by Obama and the Democrats instead of it being a one-time expense. This is one of several reason why the annual budget deficit has been over $1 trillion for every year of Obama’s term in office. Also, are you even aware that the amount added to the debt under Obama in less than four years is higher than was added to the debt under Bush in eight years? You don’t seem to realize that or much of anything as most of your posts look more like wishful thinking and avoidance of the facts. Do you feel stupid just posting propaganda without any concern whether what you’re writing is true? Or do you just like the rush of pretending you are correct and supposedly “winning” the argument?

LOL. Go back to my first post on SPENDING.

Ivedone this analysis, demonstraion countless times.
Traveling now. Will thoroughly debunk when I’m back at computer. Be prepared, your DEFICIT talking points dont stand the test of rigorous scrutiny.

You’re still missing the point that approx. 13 TRILLION of our 16 trillion debt comes from Reagen and Bush (1 and 2) years. This analysis factors in interest payments also.

So let me get this straight of the 16 Trillion in national debt you are essentially saying Reagan Bush Bush accounted for 13 of them…….pppppfffff.

You are incredibly out to lunch. Are you forgetting Clinton, and Carter or all the Presidents of our Republic? Reality says factually ZERO added more zeros to the national debt than all prior Presidents combined, and you are going to pull out the blame Bush card again?

Man up Brian…..are all Libtards so whinny? Why can’t you guys just accept the job you earned and actually do it, instead of spending your time pointing…., not my fault, not my fault, Bushes’ fault, Reagan’s faults

I sure hope this pans out. Mitt’s going to need to win either Ohio or PA, or at least Wisconsin along with a handful of up for grabs smaller swing states. Like one of the other commentors said, get out the Romney/Ryan signs! Actually, I’m even seeing more R/R signs here in Los Angeles, although there aren’t that many…

I was at Ryan’s rally in Pittsburgh this morning. Senator Toomey said before Ryan took the stage that he perhaps should not be telling us, but that Ryan was here and Romney’s wife last week because their internal polls have Pennsylvania tied. Showing up like this speaks volumes, but let’s see if they start devoting some resources to the state.

“Our ratio of Republicans to Democrats surveyed in all our Pa polls has been 48D-42R”

That is several points different then reality.

That is why Obama beat expectations in 2008… he can turn out votes. His campaigns focus on getting out the vote, not saturating the airwaves in the 11th hour.

“Our ratio of Republicans to Democrats surveyed in all our Pa polls has been 48D-42R” is confusing, as you can see by the comments. Is it 48R-42D or 42R-48D?

BigGovtSocConservative ignores one telling stat that will likely cost Mr. Obama this election. The Labor Force participation rate (adults in the work force) is at the lowest level in more than 30 years, lower than when Bush left office. Nearly 9 million Americans have left the workforce since Mr. Obama took office. This doesn’t show up in the monthly Unemployment rate (which would be 11% if they were included), but the number is real and so is the pain. And it is being felt across the country.

Since I am from MA my vote for Romney is going down the drain. Remember, we were the only state that went for McGovern. I believe that the voters in this country are waking up. When I read the crap coming from BGSC and the other Marxists posting on this site I get sick to my stomach. BGSC is especially annoying with his unfounded assertions about Romney’s five point plan. 500 economists which include 5 Nobel winners have endorsed Romney;s plan to extricate us from Obama’s socialist policies. BGSC, you are no more a social conservative than I am a moderate. Obama is screwing this country and BGSC and the other idiots will suck on the government’s mammary until it is bone dry, which will definitely happen if the Marxist is reelected. If the independents go for Romney on a ratio of 3-1 Obama is toast.

“BGSC, you are no more a social conservative than I am a moderate.”

Ohh, But I NEVER CLAIMED TO BE a Big Government Social Conservative.

My ID is a parody of YOU.

My ID is a sarcastic reflection of RYAN, and MOST of those who rally behind RYAN.

Really, YOU are in this for abortion. Who do you think you’re fooling?

Big Government is GOOD, in your world…as long as it’s on Social issues…be it abortion, gay rights, the so-called war on drugs…you name it.

YOU are the guys who devise government solutions for NON-problems.

YOU are the guys who quibble about 300 Million $ a year for Planned Parenthood, but sign on the dotted line for Trillion $ wars against countries that didn’t attack us (Math Check: One Iraq war pays for 3000 years of funding for Planned Parenthood).

Am sorry if you didn’t get the sarcasm :-).

True estimated economic cost of the Iraq war: 3-4 TRILLION dollars in total economic impact.

Most of our national debt: about 12-14 TRILLION from the Reagen and Bush (1 and 2) debts and interest payments…

Reagen TRIPPPPPLED the national debt, Bush 2 DOUBLED it…

Obama adds 50%, one of his four years being left over from Bush 2, and you scream government spending.

All of the sudden, it seems Obama isn’t the one with the spending problem…

Be careful, when you try to argue against these little things called FACTS :)

Unemployment participation rate?

A quick statistic you can shoot out to make a point… BUT you are NOT including those retiring from the work force…

If you used real unemployment it would show the same trends for Bush, Clinton, Bush, etc…

You can’t change a metric and use that as a comparison to a DIFFERENT metric… especially when you have no idea where the numbers come from or what they mean.

Get a clue, I live in PA. “likely Voters” doesn’t make any sense it’s well past the deadline to register to vote. The poll is invalid by that alone.

Steve-

Get up to speed, “Likely Voters” are actually Registered Voters who are………”likely to vote”

What is invalid is your attempt to make a point.

YES HE CAN! And should. I am from Pennsylvania and can speak freely. Think of what Obama is doing to our energy, our coal …

OBAMA IS DESTROYING COAL…. vote for Mit.

Incredible, if he can do it, it would be amazing

I’m with mitt, he’s an excellent, proven man – exactly who the country needs

Quinnipiac yesterday shows Romney within 4 of Obama in PA… using a D+8 poll. Even in 2008, the Democrat turn-out advantage was only D+7… does anyone truly think Democrats are more excited about Obama this year than the were in ’08? If you adjust down to around D+4 or 5, Romney quite likely wins Pennsylvania.

Which means the press can stop obsessing over Ohio. Please, and thank you.

We all know that most Republicans really don’t like Romney. That was made very clear during the primaries. Every primary was anyone but Mitt. What is energizing the Republican base is Obama hatred. I am not trying to make a value judgement as to whether it is warranted or not, it is just a fact.

Here is the little secret that most Republicans don’t get. While some portion of the Democratic base may not be as excited as it was in 2008, it is 100% behind the notion that Rmoney is a liar, with absolutely no core conviction who would sell “all” of is core convictions in a heartbeat put money in his pocket. I mean this is a guy who was pro choice and then became prolife while at the same time investing in a company that disposed aborted fetuses.

Democrats hate Romney more than Republicans hate Obama because of what Romney represents. If for no other reason we will be going to the polls by the millions to vote against that arrogant Dick.

The enthusiasm gap is a bunch of crap drummed up by pundits who need something to say to fill dead television time or sell newsprint.

You are correct in many ways…

This election is not “I love my guy” it’s mostly “I HATE THE OTHER GUY!”

I have been bloging on these comment boards, figuring it is my patriotic duty to try and save America, and get Romney elected……..simply put, we need a president Romney to, first SAVE America, and then RESTORE America and begin the second American Century…..as Romney and Ryan say….We CAN Do It!…..

Here is the blog I wrote the morning after the first debate…….this is what turned the eection around…..please read it, and you will gain a tremendous insight:
————————————————————————————-

I watched the first DEBATE between President Romney and ex-president obama, and the outcome was clear. I am no longer so worried about this election and the fate of America. I think we are in good hands with President Romney……phew!

The DEBATE was so one sided, such a command performance of President Romney, that the former president obama was finally… FINALLY ….. shown for what it is only fair and accurate to describe him as…. the imposter.

That said, it has been simply JAW DROPPING to witness the overwhelming forces in the media which have been arrayed against President Romney these past many, many months. The propaganda effort to keep obama, and the leftist/democrat ruling structure, in power has been, simply, shocking to behold by  someone who was raised in America,  who grew up expecting there to be a free, truth seeking press!

As just ONE example, we have seen with our own eyes the pretzel like twisting of the Libyan disaster story by the former obama administration into something entirely different from what the real story is. Further, we have witnessed the apt named, ‘lap dog” media, join in with the former administration’s propaganda effort to turn this story of disaster and tragic, unnecessary deaths of remarkable, superlative Americans into a pretend, fabricated scenario, which has been preposterous from the day we first heard it.

Ironically, surely the lap dog, leftist media has been a significant contributor to the former president obama’s demise, as for the past near four years, they have shielded this man from the arrows of any incoming criticisms what-so-ever.

Now, here we get to the crux of the matter:

Effectively, with the first debate, the WHOLE American people saw that the petulant, self-absorbed, churlish Emperor has no clothes !….. And, now, all the King’s horses, and all the King’s men (and all the King’s panderers and courtiers in the leftist media) will never be able to put Humpty Dumpty together again!

The false narrative building up former president obama into something he is not, something he never was, is over….. and, the false narrative, the phony disparagement, the outright slander, depicting President Romney as something he is not, something he never was, is also over, never to be able to be revived as believable narrative again.

The twin sisters of the leftist media and the propagandists in the former obama administration worked relentlessly to cloak President Romney in a false narrative, to hide from the American public just what a stellar man President Romney truly is. These twin sisters are relentless and ruthless propagandists. But, they are only  EFFECTIVE propagandists when they MONOPOLIZE the information getting out to the bulk of the American public.

As a result of the first debate,  that monopoly over information, that monopoly of propaganda controlled by the twin sisters of former obama administration and the main stream, leftist media, was BROKEN……

Going forward, the false narrative they have dished out to gullible Americans has been swept away, and most Americans will now be openly receptive to hear just who President Romney really is…..the stellar leader America so desperately needs at this time, one of the greatest crisis America has ever faced.

And,  at the same time, the citizens have seen former president obama for who he truly is, the Emperor who has been shielded by everyone around him for the past four years, the Emperor whose total failure on virtually all fronts has been hidden, whose failures have been shoved under the rug, away from the light of the truth.

As a result of the first debate, solely through what only can be described as his HEROIC efforts, President Romney SMASHED the monopoly over information which the propagandists in the former obama administration and their slavering allies in the leftist, main stream media had wielded like a club against him.

This election is now turning. The truth is being revealed…… We may not be singing “Ding dong the witch is dead”…yet…. but it is coming….  it is coming.

That said, with the stakes for this election being the very survival of America as we have known it, Americans of traditional values, who believe America MUST remain a Great Nation, MUST stand up, step forward, and work diligently to get out everyone we know and make sure they vote for President Romney!….We simply cannot leave ANYTHING to chance…..no STONE can be UNTURNED…. no VOTER can be LEFT UNCHALLENGED as to what is at stake!

Ohio is the key state……WITH Ohio President Romney can begin turn America around…. WITHOUT Ohio, there will likely be a second obama administration, and a descent into the horror of economic disaster, as the DEBT BOMB explodes, and America fails.

Post Script / October 20th

But, IF Pennsylvania goes for Romney, this could offset a possible loss in Ohio.

Personally, I think the election is moving in Romney’s direction. Florida is said now to be getting safe for Romney. I looked at the polls for the various states tonight, and Ohio seems to be going towards Romney, too.

I am down in Florida, and I am walking the streets, knocking on doors for the Romney campaign. I am struck by how desperate people are to get rid of Obama….you can feel it. People are scared about what will happen under Obama 2 point 0!

Also, people want Romney signs for their yards….and you see Romney signs all over the place….and hardly any Obama signs….they are rare to see….it is quite incredible. I think Obama supporters are ashamed to admit it…..so, I am thinking that many of these Obama supporters just aren’t going to show up…..maybe they can’t bring themselves to vote for him, and know in their hearts that Romney needs to take the reins…….I think it is obvious.

And, for my two cents….I think Romney is going to be a GREAT president….I think we are looking at a second Reagan….and a big turnaround in the nation, coupled with a conservative resurgence…back to traditional American values !
———————————————————-
You and your friends are welcome to an attractively designed, free PDF fie of this post, which can be used to repost anywhere, or to email to friends and family to influence their vote, and their allegiance to the growing movement to Restore America.

Simply email me at:

DanKimbleBlogsForAmerica@hotmail.com

Thanks for that…..re-cap.

Can you say Empty Chair………, ZERO?

The Most Consequential Election of Our Lifetimes: The Key Factor Which Turned It Around

I have been bloging for months about this election. Below is a post which provides an insightful analysis of what that first debate meant. I wrote this post the morning after the first debate. Read it, I think you will see the truth of the matter:

——————————————————————————

I watched the first DEBATE between President Romney and ex-president obama, and the outcome was clear. I am no longer so worried about this election and the fate of America. I think we are in good hands with President Romney……phew!

The DEBATE was so one sided, such a command performance of President Romney, that the former president obama was finally… FINALLY ….. shown for what it is only fair and accurate to describe him as…. the imposter.

That said, it has been simply JAW DROPPING to witness the overwhelming forces in the media which have been arrayed against President Romney these past many, many months. The propaganda effort to keep obama, and the leftist/democrat ruling structure, in power has been, simply, shocking to behold by  someone who was raised in America,  who grew up expecting there to be a free, truth seeking press!

As just ONE example, we have seen with our own eyes the pretzel like twisting of the Libyan disaster story by the former obama administration into something entirely different from what the real story is. Further, we have witnessed the apt named, ‘lap dog” media, join in with the former administration’s propaganda effort to turn this story of disaster and tragic, unnecessary deaths of remarkable, superlative Americans into a pretend, fabricated scenario, which has been preposterous from the day we first heard it.

Ironically, surely the lap dog, leftist media has been a significant contributor to the former president obama’s demise, as for the past near four years, they have shielded this man from the arrows of any incoming criticisms what-so-ever.

Now, here we get to the crux of the matter:

Effectively, with the first debate, the WHOLE American people saw that the petulant, self-absorbed, churlish Emperor has no clothes !….. And, now, all the King’s horses, and all the King’s men (and all the King’s panderers and courtiers in the leftist media) will never be able to put Humpty Dumpty together again!

The false narrative building up former president obama into something he is not, something he never was, is over….. and, the false narrative, the phony disparagement, the outright slander, depicting President Romney as something he is not, something he never was, is also over, never to be able to be revived as believable narrative again.

The twin sisters of the leftist media and the propagandists in the former obama administration worked relentlessly to cloak President Romney in a false narrative, to hide from the American public just what a stellar man President Romney truly is. These twin sisters are relentless and ruthless propagandists. But, they are only  EFFECTIVE propagandists when they MONOPOLIZE the information getting out to the bulk of the American public.

As a result of the first debate,  that monopoly over information, that monopoly of propaganda controlled by the twin sisters of former obama administration and the main stream, leftist media, was BROKEN……

Going forward, the false narrative they have dished out to gullible Americans has been swept away, and most Americans will now be openly receptive to hear just who President Romney really is…..the stellar leader America so desperately needs at this time, one of the greatest crisis America has ever faced.

And,  at the same time, the citizens have seen former president obama for who he truly is, the Emperor who has been shielded by everyone around him for the past four years, the Emperor whose total failure on virtually all fronts has been hidden, whose failures have been shoved under the rug, away from the light of the truth.

As a result of the first debate, solely through what only can be described as his HEROIC efforts, President Romney SMASHED the monopoly over information which the propagandists in the former obama administration and their slavering allies in the leftist, main stream media had wielded like a club against him.

This election is now turning. The truth is being revealed…… We may not be singing “Ding dong the witch is dead”…yet…. but it is coming….  it is coming.

That said, with the stakes for this election being the very survival of America as we have known it, Americans of traditional values, who believe America MUST remain a Great Nation, we must stand up, step forward, and work diligently to get out everyone we know and make sure they vote for President Romney!….We simply cannot leave ANYTHING to chance…..no STONE can be UNTURNED…. NO VOTER can be LEFT UNCHALLENGED as to what is at stake.

Ohio is the key state……with Ohio President Romney can begin turn America around….without Ohio, there will be a second obama administration, and a descent into the horror of economic disaster, as the DEBT BOMB explodes, and America fails.

Ohio is the key state……with Ohio President Romney can begin turn America around….without Ohio, there will be a second obama administration, and a descent into the horror of economic disaster, as the DEBT BOMB explodes, and America fails.

————————————————————————————————

Post Script / Oct 20TH:

But, IF Pennsylvania goes for Romney, this could offset a possible loss in Ohio.

Personally, I think the election is moving in Romney’s direction. Florida is said now to be getting safe for Romney. I looked at the polls for the various states tonight, and I also think Ohio is moving towards Romney.

I am down in Florida, and I am walking the streets, knocking on doors for the Romney campaign. I am struck by how desperate people are to get rid of Obama….you can feel it. People are AFRAID of what OBAMA 2 point 0 will bring!

Also, people want signs for their yards….and you see Romney signs all over the place….and hardly any Obama signs….it is quite incredible. I think Obama supporters are ashamed to admit it…..so, I am thinking that many of these Obama supporters just aren’t going to show up…..maybe they can’t bring themselves to vote for him, and know in their hearts that Romney needs to take the reins…….I think it is obvious.

And, for my two cents….I think Romney is going to be a GREAT president….I think we are looking at a second Reagan….and a big turnaround in the nation, coupled with a conservative resurgence…back to traditional American values !

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You and your friends are welcome to an attractively designed, free PDF fie of this post, which can be used to repost anywhere, or to email to friends and family to influence their vote, and their allegiance to the growing movement to Restore America.

Simply email me at:

DanKimbleBlogsForAmerica (at) hotmail (dot) com

Such an unbiased, relevant comment to this article…

my advice: LAY OFF THE FOX NEWS! Try broadening your information sources. :)

Brian-

Lay off the CNN, MSNBC, CBS, ABC, PBS, try broadening your drinking habits, step away from the cool-aide.

Reality will help you tremendously! Try simple math, D+8 in every poll is NOT reality.

You are a right wing polling fraud in the mold of Rasmussen, Gravis Marketing, WeAskAmerica, etc. You have no credibility. Romney has no chance in PA.

Jim-

Funny thing…. did you take a sip of the ZERO’s cool-aide? Check out the peer reviewed University of Denver prediction model which show Romney winning the Presidency AND Pennsylvania.

They have been correct since their inception 1980 (NEVER Wrong).

Does that help your reality, or are you still clinging to your Abortion, Bush Blame Card and Libtard media propaganda?

Going to keep election arguments out of this post and focus on polliing arguments:

You cannot look at a single poll and make any valid assumption.

The closest thing to accuracy we can have is a weighted average of polls.

The most accurate weighting of the polls give Obama the edge – 51.6 to 47.3 with an almost 90% chance of winning.

2010 is moot… it was a midterm… if it was a valid event in this circumstance, Reagen and Clinton would have both lost their reelecton bids.

2004 perhaps has some validity.

You cannot listen to any Libtard and take their assumptions as Reality…….

Refer to the University of Denver prediction model which has NEVER been wrong.

You will lose, and lose in dramatic fashion in spite of your delusion.

white voters were 81% of the 2008 pa electorate.
if romney wins them, 62-38, he would have more than enough votes to win.

but…should he just hold in hispanics and african american support to 2008 levels, he would require just a 60-40 split.

I find it unlikely, but not impossible.

One final note…

Why is it I see so much “THE POLLS ARE SKEWED” when Obama is ahead…

But when a few polls (the vast MINORITY of them) show Romney up, the desperate Romney supporters jump all over them?

Brian-

Really, are you that unbelievable dunce? It’s called oversampling, and yes, Romney supporters have every right to get excited when a single poll (Oversampled D+8 ) like this one shows Romney ahead. It simply man Romney is crushing ZERO. When you consider all the other oversampled polls when checking with their internal numbers and factor in reality of perhaps D+3-4 Romney is currently crushing ZERO in most states.

It is hilarious YOU think ZERO is ahead. Reality will hit you up side the head on November 6th and the hangover will last at least 4 years.

Union members can vote as they choose when the get inside the voter booth. The unions members surprise you sometimes and Romney respects unions

“Romney respects unions”

And the Taleban respects women.

if that gallup number is true…
then 49-45 is also true. and obama’s reelection chances are done.

the last time a republican really competed in the state was just in 2004.
bush lost by 2.25%.

the electorate in pa for 2008 was only 2.46% greater than 2004.
138,616 more votes cast, so the general landscape hasn’t changed drastically since 2004.

tend to think that this is the first real state poll that is pointing towards the gallup numbers.

no harm if one is wrong…genius if one is right.
bona fortuna.

According to the latest PPD poll out of Pennslyvania that shows Romney within 1 point, “Obama does have one big advantage in Ohio though- he’s already winning the election there. 21% of voters in the state say they’ve already voted, and they report having supported Obama 66/34.” If Romeny doesn’t win Ohio, this election goes to Obama becuase Pennsylvania appears to me to be a high odds long shot for the Romney/Ryan ticket.

The more I think about this, the more I discount a Romney win in either Pennsyvania or Ohio. I am going to keep my eyes glued to the numbers coming out of Wisconsin. Wisconsin or bust.

Mate,
Look at the body language. It’s OVER. As long as O’s team gets the vote out, Willard’s sunk.

Watch for the next key indicator, I expect to happen after the 3rd debate.

Money will start pouring into Paul Ryan’s Congressional seat in WI.

When that happens, you know the internal memo is out, that the R team doesn’t rate it’s chances good.

But while we’re here, hop over to WaPo and read George Will’s column today. Sounds funereal to me.

Just remember that it was President Clinton deregulated the banking system. Also, both Presidents Kennedy and Reagan did exactly the same thing that Governor Romney is proposing. Interesting the two iconic presidents if the democratic and republican parties. Lastly, President Obama’s administration is either completely incompetent or is out right lying to America regarding the death of four citizens.

I can certainly understand why Republicans would seize on any distraction from Bush’s ignoring many briefings on al Q’aida but I don’t understand what they are trying to get across about the Embassy action.

In the first place, while Embassy security would have been enhanced had the Rs not blocked it the budget for it, an embassy is not a fortress. Long after security forces were convinced that Pennsylvania Avenue had to be blocked off, presidents resisted their arguments because the White House is the people’s house, it is symbolic, and closing it off would destroy much of its symbolic value. Embassies are the same. If you built and equipped an embassy to withstand a well-armed attack by a trained paramilitary group, you would gain a fort but lose an embassy.

If I’m following the narrative, the Rs are saying the administration ascribed the murderous attack to one of the outraged mobs that were stoning embassies around the world on that day, when they knew that it was really a planned action of an al Q’aida affiliate or “link” (unlikely indeed in Libya, they’re the guys you armed and put in power there) or other organized group of some kind, in order to gain some kind of political advantage? Is that it?

Has it now become a Republican value rather than a “gaffe” to shoot from the lip? I’m sure all the possibilities were on the table, but most of the evidence consists of electronic intercepts in the thousands, all of which have to be listened to, then sorted, flagged, correlated with others, and passed to an intelligence team for evaluation. And during this time, you might not want to describe what you are doing, still might not, as though the people you were surveilling were not also surveilling you.

Rs: Why have you not done anything about Osama bin Laden?

Pres: Why I have dispatched a SEAL team to his hideout in Pakistan and they should be there in a couple of hours.

I guess these people didn’t lose friends or family maimed or killed in Iraq, or they would have developed a certain antipathy to government acting lethally on a guess or a hunch or wishful thinking. Does “wishful thinking” sound ghoulish? Well, listen to them. Don’t you get the feeling that should any evidence ever emerge that the Iranians were developing a nuclear weapon, the Rs would be exultant, celebratory?

[...] at 3:01 on October 21, 2012 by CuriosityCat This Republican analysis thinks so: … ← New SARS-like virus discovered before it causes [...]

[...] at 2:45 on October 21, 2012 by CuriosityCat This Republican analysis thinks so: … This entry was posted in   Bloggers,   Liberal. Bookmark the [...]

Obama hasn’t a hope in hell of winning Ohio. Too many early votes have been cast for him.

These ballots are going to be out there vulnerable to tampering for weeks.

Their chances of being disappeared look excellent.

I ‘ll tell you this. If Romney wins Pennsylvania, this election is over. Romney will win in a landslide. However, even if for some remote reason, Romney does not take Ohio, then he will pick up 20 points from Pennsylvania and that will take Romney over the top.

Romney is highly unlikely to win PA.

In the unlikely event that he makes PA competitive (the responses in PA seem to suggest he’s not getting traction; if PA really was competitive, yesterday wouldn’t have been Ryan’s first stump in PA since…August 21.

Be realistic, the only chance R-R have in PA is by setting shop there, for the remaining 2 weeks before the election, and thereby risking losses in VA, CO, FL. The high risk desperate strategy is in play. PA is being entered by R-R only because the Ohio firewall is proving to be impregnable.

One thing all democrats fail to notice and which is an absolutely accurate indicator of this election, and that is the University of Colorado Presidential Election Model. This model has never been wrong in history. The University of Colorado Model poll shows that Romney will take PA, OH, VA, CN,FL, and it also predicts Romney wins this election on November 6, 2012 in a LANDSLIDE. This Model has NEVER been wrong.

Very funny. It’s a gopher, right?

Actually, it’s a model based on economic conditions.

If this election is decided on economic conditions, Obama will lose it. Not a subtle method — why do they need to use a computer? Unfortunately for its prospects in this election, polling shows an unprecedented number of voters who don’t hold the current administration responsible for adverse economic conditions.

Cassandra,

It’s not a PREDICTIVE model. It’s a model retroactively fitted with a claim of variables that fit the election results.

No doubt, they’ll refine the model and come out with another prediction in 2016. But the U of C model hasn’t yet churned out ONE accurate prediction.

While I want Romney to win, in order to win PA he’d have to have to win about 58% of the White vote. Possible but highly very difficult since most polling I’ve seen of PA shows about 50% of PA Whites currently supporting Romney.

[...] issue that will influence their vote, voters prefer Romney over Obama by a 54% to 40% margin. This is clear evidence Romney is winning the jobs argument. Voters in Western Pa, who tend to be blue collar, working class Democrats, care about jobs and [...]

Overall there are many fewer election signs for all contestants (of all the different races), but one thing is evident: there are more anti-obama signs than there are Obama/Biden signs. It is almost as if the Obama/Biden ticket isn’t even trying in PA. Honestly I see a 4:1 advantage for Romney/Ryan in regards to election signage. In 2008 it wasn’t anything like this.

I live in a safe blue state, and I don’t see Obama signs anywhere, here as well. Polling indicates Obama’s ahead here substantially, as he was in 2008. Do buy into the yard signs theory as opposed to the polls, if that’s what you need to keep your mojo going.

Each of us needs to get out the vote for Romney! Take people to the polls early, volunteer for Romney, and bring disappointed Obama to Romney.

[...] Lee: Mitt Can Win Pennsylvania [...]

I think politicians should be more honest and speak about jobbies more of the time, well actually most of them speak it all the time anyway.

[...] state released yesterday by Susquehanna Polling and Research and discussed on the firm’s blog site today shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over the president in the Pennsylvania. That [...]

Thoroughly great posting on Mitt Romney Can Win
Pennsylvania Because He Is Winning the “Jobs”
Argument | Voter Survey Service!!
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